Sweden investigates suspected election fraud in Borlänge. So far it concerns one Left Party seat

Swedish police are investigating a suspicion that someone in the central Swedish town of Borlänge drove voters to polling stations and handed them Left Party ballots on which a candidate's name was already marked with a cross. According to Sveriges Radio, the prosecutor confirmed that the investigation is linked to the campaign of newly elected member of parliament Mohamed Abdukardir Ali, but has not yet officially notified anyone of suspicion. Aftonbladet ↗

The case was taken over by the police's National Operations Department, NOA. According to Svenska Dagbladet, the Election Review Board received around 5,000 submissions. Svenska Dagbladet ↗ Norway's Aftenposten writes that the affair is shaking Swedish politics just as a new government is being formed after a tight election and the departure of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. According to Expressen, for now the question is who will take one Left Party seat. The majority could be threatened only by a repeat election in Dalarna, of a kind never before ordered in a Riksdag election. Aftenposten ↗

What exactly the police are investigating

It all began with an anonymous tip. According to SVT's findings, police then watched cars in Borlänge that, during early voting, drove voters to polling stations and back. According to SVT, people went around with Left Party ballots on which one candidate's name was already marked with a cross and urged voters to use them. SVT names two party politicians as the central figures, Ali and Ahmed Abas Omar. SVT ↗

According to Aftonbladet, whose findings SVT also picked up, police also documented a cash withdrawal from an ATM and the same person later handing out both money and ballots to voters. What the money was for is not yet clear, and the prosecutor did not confirm these details. SVT ↗ According to Aftonbladet, a pre-marked ballot need not in itself be illegal if the cross is made by hand. In 2018, the Halland county administrative board and the Election Review Board both called a similar practice by the Sweden Democrats “inappropriate,” but not unlawful influencing of the election. Aftonbladet ↗

With 648 preference votes, Ali moved from ninth place on the list into parliament and overtook the list's number one, the party's climate policy spokesperson Kajsa Fredholm, who thereby lost her seat. Aftonbladet ↗ Asked by SVT whether he has anything to do with the suspicion, he replied: “That is completely, completely wrong. I didn't do it. I know the law.” SVT ↗

The investigation was halted before the election

The police handed the surveillance material to the prosecutor on 1 September, before the 13 September election. The prosecutor halted the investigation on 8 September owing to problems with the evidence and resumed it on 21 September, after the election, reasoning that “new circumstances” justified it. According to prosecution documents seen by SVT, a third suspect was added to the file at that point. The identities of all three are confidential, and none of them has been officially notified of suspicion. SVT ↗

Dagens Nyheter found that officers were unhappy about the halting of the investigation. “The police were very irritated that they were prevented from getting to the bottom of it,” an unnamed source told the paper. Dagens Nyheter ↗

On 23 September, prosecutor Oskar Edvardsson announced that his unit is also investigating a second case, unrelated to Borlänge. He classifies it as an unlawful advantage in connection with voting, and as an example of such an act he cited an attempt to sell one's own vote. One person is suspected in it. SVT ↗

Could this change the election result?

The centre-left bloc won by a margin of three seats, 176 to 173, and after the count Kristersson asked to be relieved of office. According to the board's chair, Svante O. Johansson, two conditions must be met to annul a result: an error and its effect on the outcome. According to Expressen, the 648 preference votes for Ali alone do not change the distribution of seats between parties. They decide only which Left Party candidate takes its single seat for Dalarna. Expressen ↗

Political scientist Erik Wångmar of Linnaeus University told SVT that in a repeat election in the Dalarna constituency, seats could also be at stake. Such a step, however, would have no precedent. According to Aftonbladet, a repeat Riksdag election has never yet been ordered in any constituency, and in Dalarna it would affect about 223,000 voters. SVT ↗ Aftonbladet ↗

The board will begin dealing with the case only after 29 September, when the deadline for appeals expires. It does not have to wait for the police, because according to Johansson the burden of proof in an election review is the reverse of that in criminal proceedings. After the last election, it ruled on the Riksdag in December. Expressen ↗

How the neighbours see it

Norway's Aftenposten links the affair to the government negotiations. The Swedes, it says, are trying to assemble a cabinet from parties “that hardly want to sit in the same room,” and the Left Party has been hit by a scandal with “crazy ingredients.” Aftenposten ↗

Finland's Helsingin Sanomat writes that the suspicion is already overshadowing exploratory talks on the new government. Denmark's Politiken recalls Ali's statement to Expressen that the personal support surprised him, because he himself had no campaign or election materials. Helsingin Sanomat ↗ Politiken ↗

The party leader is silent, Ali is not yet giving up his seat

According to the Left Party, Ali is taking a “time-out” and will not exercise his mandate from the start of the parliamentary term. According to secretary general Maria Forsberg, however, he will not give up the seat for now. According to Expressen, party leader Nooshi Dadgostar had not commented even 50 hours after the first reports. Social Democratic leader Magdalena Andersson, who may return to the office of prime minister, called the suspicion “very, very serious.” Expressen ↗ Expressen ↗ Dagens Nyheter ↗

Columnist Vesna Prekopic writes in Dagens Nyheter that trust in others is the value Swedes prize most, and that the suspicion from Borlänge shows how vulnerable it is and how easily it can be abused. Dagens Nyheter ↗

Limits of this view

The details about the money and the ATM were reported by Aftonbladet and Expressen, citing unnamed sources, and the prosecutor did not confirm them. No one has yet been officially notified of suspicion. Dagens Nyheter spoke with residents of the district where Ali won the most votes, and many of them do not believe the suspicion. According to one of them, they wanted to “give the new guy a chance.” Caution is also warranted so that suspicion of specific individuals is not transferred onto an entire neighbourhood. Dagens Nyheter ↗

What hotinfo is watching

*Illustrative photo: party ballots in a Swedish polling station (Linköping, 2010). Photo: LA2, CC BY-SA 3.0, Wikimedia Commons.*