Romania has had no full-fledged government for five months. Fourth candidate Niculescu still lacks a majority

Romanian President Nicușor Dan tasked diplomat Luca Niculescu, already the fourth candidate since the fall of Ilie Bolojan's government, with forming a government on October 5. According to Romanian media, he must present a program and a list of ministers to parliament by Thursday, October 15, but he needs 233 votes for a confidence vote, and so far only the minorities and two small groups with a total of about 40 deputies have declared open support for him. He refuses to withdraw and will go ahead with the vote even without a guaranteed majority. Digi24 ↗ The text reflects the situation as of Tuesday morning, October 13.

Five months and four candidates

The crisis was triggered on May 5 by a motion of no confidence against Ilie Bolojan's government, filed by the PSD and AUR. G4Media ↗ Bolojan has since led a caretaker cabinet. Dan first tasked Eugen Tomac, who returned the mandate on June 14 before reaching a vote. Digi24 ↗ Adrian Veștea's cabinet received 189 votes in favor and 23 against on June 22. Adevărul ↗ Siegfried Mureșan's government received 182 votes on September 30, instead of the required 233. Libertatea ↗

Luca Niculescu is 55 years old and, according to HotNews, served as ambassador to France from 2016 to 2022, worked as a journalist for almost a quarter century, and is now state secretary at the foreign ministry and coordinator of Romania's accession to the OECD. He has never belonged to any party, and both Tomac and Veștea had him on their teams as foreign minister. HotNews ↗

A profile of Niculescu from October 7 by Știrile ProTV (in Romanian, 2 min).

Arithmetic that doesn't add up

The PSD wants a political government and rejects a technocratic one. It is willing to join the government if the PNL or UDMR join as well. Pro TV ↗ Caretaker Prime Minister Bolojan (PNL) does not want to enter government with the PSD and, for a technocratic cabinet, considers it possible for the prime minister to reach agreements with each party on supporting specific goals for a set period. Pro TV ↗ The wing of the PNL that disagrees with Bolojan sees it differently: MEP Rareș Bogdan claims that 25 Liberal deputies are ready to vote for Niculescu, possibly as many as 27 or 28. Adevărul ↗

USR chairman Dominic Fritz says the USR will not support a government with PSD ministers. Digi24 ↗ According to UDMR parliamentary group leader Csoma Botond, the party could elect Niculescu if there are no negotiations with AUR and SOS Romania. Pro TV ↗ AUR rejected the votes: Simion called Niculescu a "puppet" and promised "zero votes." Pro TV ↗ According to Digi24, AUR would vote only after the release of Călin Georgescu. Digi24 ↗ According to the same report, open support comes from the minorities (17 deputies), the PACE group (7), and UPR (16).

What Niculescu is offering

He wants a six-month "non-aggression pact" until April, with no motions of no confidence, so he can manage this year's budget revision and the 2027 budget. However, Digi24 sources say a six-month commitment would look bad to foreign markets, so publicly he talks about a government lasting until the 2028 elections. If the political formula fails, he reportedly has a technocratic cabinet with names ready. Digi24 ↗ He himself would prefer a political government or a "mixed formula." Pro TV ↗ The PSD, meanwhile, wants the government to last until December 2028. Adevărul ↗

Statements by President Dan and Niculescu after the October 5 nomination, from public broadcaster TVR (in Romanian, 6 min).

Why it's also an economic problem

According to unofficial Digi24 sources, Brussels expects the next government to keep the deficit at no more than 5.3% of GDP in 2027, and Romania will likely fail to collect 770 million euros from the recovery plan because the public-sector pay law did not pass in time. Digi24 ↗ Daniel Dăianu, head of the Fiscal Council, warns that early elections could lead to a rating downgrade. Digi24 ↗

A side dispute: Ambassador Guilfoyle

Romanian politics has also become entangled in an American dispute. According to the Wall Street Journal, Kimberly Guilfoyle, the US ambassador to Greece, allegedly said at a dinner in Athens with the Greek energy minister, in connection with the impending fall of the Romanian government, that the US can do that to any country. Her lawyer says the conversation was misrepresented. Digi24 ↗ Two congressmen, a Republican and a Democrat, are now asking the State Department what basis she had for her claim about the US role in the fall of the Romanian government, and are requesting information about her trips to Romania, Albania, and Bulgaria. Digi24 ↗ We have no evidence of US involvement in the government's collapse. Bolojan's government denies that any talks took place at the level of the prime minister's office, and states that no document on the purchase of liquefied gas was approved. Pro TV ↗

What if Niculescu fails

He could withdraw, like Tomac, or lose the vote, like Veștea and Mureșan. Dan could then propose a fifth candidate or call early elections, though according to G4Media these would not happen immediately due to bureaucracy and legal requirements, so the crisis would be prolonged. G4Media ↗ Grindeanu said on Monday that the scenario of early elections is becoming increasingly real. Digi24 ↗

Limits of this account

We rely on Romanian media and their sources within the parties. Promises of support are statements, not votes, and the figures on groups with "open support" come from a single Digi24 report without official confirmation. The data on the budget and recovery-plan funds come from anonymous sources. Negotiations continue, so the situation may have changed since this was finalized.

What hotinfo is watching

*Illustrative photo: Palatul Victoria, the seat of the Romanian government, with a banner in the colors of the flag during the December 1 holiday in 2015 (Britchi Mirela, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0).*