Key actors — tap for context
Marco Rubio
US Secretary of State
Why here: In Bahrain, he rejected the Iranian toll and warned that charging for the strait would "spread around the world like a plague"
More info →
Lindsey Graham
Republican US senator and one of the most vocal hawks on Iran
Why here: He declared that if the deal collapses, Trump will seize the strait by force and "destroy" Iran
More info →
Donald Trump
President of the United States
Why here: Threatened to seize Hormuz and impose an American toll if the framework deal with Iran collapses
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Arsenio Dominguez
Secretary-General of the UN's International Maritime Organization
Why here: Suspended the evacuation of 11,000 stranded sailors after the attack on the ship
More info →International Maritime Organization
UN maritime agency that sets shipping safety rules
Why here: Now running the suspended evacuation of ships stranded in the strait
Strait of Hormuz
narrow sea passage between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil flows
Why here: Site of the attack and of the power struggle over who controls it
UKMTO
British maritime center that monitors incidents and warns ships
Why here: Was the first to report the ship being hit by a projectile of unknown origin
🔴 Latest developments (June 27–29)
- US reports deal to halt attacks, talks in Doha on Tuesday. According to US officials cited by Axios, Washington and Tehran have agreed to stop "all kinetic activity" — "both sides will stand down for now and ships can sail freely." Tuesday's talks, originally planned for Switzerland, were moved to Doha, Qatar, due to the escalation, with the Hormuz dispute as their topic, though technical discussions are set to continue "on all areas of the memorandum." Times of Israel ↗Axios ↗Euronews ↗
- Tehran remains cautious, has not officially confirmed the deal. An Iranian official told state television that Tehran did not take part in Sunday's technical talks because of the recent attacks and unmet conditions of the June 17 memorandum — such as access to unfrozen Iranian funds. For now, the ceasefire rests mainly on the American statement. Times of Israel ↗
- Second night of US airstrikes, Trump: "The Islamic Republic will cease to exist." The US struck additional targets in Iran for a second consecutive night. Trump warned that if the US returns to war, "the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist." Digi24 ↗BFM TV ↗
- Iran retaliated with strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait. Iran's Revolutionary Guards report a retaliatory strike on American targets in both countries; in Bahrain, according to local authorities, air raid sirens sounded and a residential building was damaged. ANSA ↗Index.hr ↗
- The ceasefire is collapsing, Tehran promises Americans "hell." The Revolutionary Guards claim to have struck eight American targets, which has not been independently confirmed, and both sides are accusing each other of violating the ceasefire. Financial Times ↗AP ↗
- Hormuz partially comes back to life, oil gets cheaper. A container ship passed through the strait, and oil prices are falling faster than expected, though the drop will show up more slowly at gas stations. Portfolio ↗Het Laatste Nieuws ↗
- US struck Iranian targets overnight, ceasefire breaking down. Washington responded to the attack on the ship in Hormuz, and Tehran reports a counterattack on American positions in the Gulf. BBC ↗ORF ↗
- Iran demands defined routes in the strait. After the ceasefire, Tehran is escalating threats and seeking control over passage through Hormuz. CM Jornal ↗
- 115 ships and more than 2,000 sailors left the Persian Gulf through the strait. Some of the stranded traffic moved despite the tension. Ziarul de Gardă ↗
What exactly happened
The ship, which the AP identified as the Singapore-flagged cargo vessel Ever Lovely, was hit on its starboard side by a projectile about 14 kilometers southeast of the Omani port of Dahit. UKMTO did not name the vessel, described the incident as a "suspected attack," called the projectile one of unknown origin, and urged ships to transit with caution. A US official told AP and CNN that an Iranian drone was responsible, but Tehran has not commented on the attack, and no side has independently confirmed responsibility. AP ↗ CNN ↗Why the UN suspended the evacuation
The IMO began evacuating hundreds of ships stranded in the strait after Hormuz was effectively closed during the war. Sailors were to be brought out via two corridors — one through Iranian waters and the other through Omani waters. After the attack, IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez temporarily suspended the evacuation in order, in his own words, to "reconfirm that the necessary safety assurances remain in place." The ship that was hit was not actually part of the UN evacuation framework, which, according to the organization, only underscores how much risk sailors in the area face. Al Jazeera ↗ IMO ↗The toll dispute and threats of force
The attack landed in the middle of a tense dispute over who will control the strait. Iran's Strait of Hormuz Authority declared that it guarantees safe passage only on routes designated by Tehran, calling other routes "unacceptable and extremely dangerous," and the Revolutionary Guards say several ships on the southern corridor have already turned back. Iran is also pushing for transit fees, which, according to available estimates, could bring in around $40 billion a year. Both the US and the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf reject this. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned in Bahrain that charging for the international waterway would "spread around the world like a plague" and bring "total chaos," while Omani minister Badr Búsajdí ruled out any fees. CBS News ↗Trump's threat and calm markets
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham went even further: if the deal falls apart, he said, Trump will "take the strait by force" and the US itself will impose the toll, and if Iran contests it, "we will destroy them." Trump himself floated a similar possibility on Truth Social. The attack, however, did not push oil prices up significantly — a barrel is holding near pre-war levels of around $70 to $74, as more crude flows into the market from the Middle East. Prices rose slightly after news of the attack, but are far from the panic of the war's first days. The June 17 framework agreement from Versailles, meant to end nearly four months of fighting, began to crumble just days after it was signed. The Guardian ↗ CBS News ↗What hotinfo is watching
- The outcome of Tuesday's (June 30) US-Iran talks in Doha, Qatar, and whether the agreed halt to attacks holds.
- Whether the IMO resumes the evacuation of 11,000 sailors, and under what safety assurances.
- Whether investigators manage to identify who struck the ship, and what an independent investigation shows.
- The toll dispute: whether Iran formally introduces the fees and how Washington and the Gulf states respond.
- The oil market's reaction if a second attack occurs.
- The fate of the June 17 ceasefire and the Lebanese flashpoint undermining it.
