Putin compared Armenia to Ukraine. After the Yerevan summits he calls for an EU referendum, Russian Foreign Ministry summons ambassador

During a press conference following Victory Day in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin compared Armenia's shift toward the European Union to the events preceding Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and proposed that Yerevan hold a referendum on the country's direction. Putin's remark came several days after the summit of the European Political Community (EPC) in Yerevan and the first EU–Armenia summit, at which Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan welcomed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky — the first visit by a Ukrainian president to Armenia in 24 years. After the summit, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Armenian ambassador, and Pashinyan responded by reiterating that "on the issue of Ukraine, we are not allies of Russia," announcing that he would not attend Saturday's parade in Moscow. Seznam Zprávy ↗ Kyiv Independent ↗

"A logical parting of ways": a press conference with an undertone

Putin brought up the topic of Armenia after the ceremonial parade in Moscow. According to consistent reports from international and Armenian news outlets, which quoted from the transcript, the Russian president said that Yerevan should decide on its geopolitical direction "as soon as possible," and that a referendum would be the "logical" step. If Armenia were to choose Brussels, he said, it should be a "gentle, civilized, and mutually beneficial parting of ways" with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). United24 Media ↗ ArmInfo ↗ Eurasian Times ↗

In the same response, he compared Armenia's situation to Ukraine's: "We see everything happening in the Ukrainian direction. But where did it all begin? With Ukraine's effort to join the EU." He then immediately recalled that "a state coup followed, then the Crimean story and combat operations." For Yerevan, this is a double signal — Moscow is offering a "divorce," while simultaneously recalling its version of the events that followed after 2014, when Kyiv turned toward the West. United24 Media ↗ Seznam Zprávy ↗

Chain of events: drones over Red Square and a summoned ambassador

It started in Yerevan. On May 4, Pashinyan, together with European Council President António Costa, chaired the eighth EPC summit. French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš attended the talks, along with dozens of other European leaders. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev did not attend in person, joining via video link instead. Between May 4 and 5, Yerevan also hosted the first-ever EU–Armenia summit. European Council: EPC May 4 ↗ European Council: first EU-Armenia summit ↗

Zelensky's attendance was historic. The bilateral meeting with Pashinyan had been arranged in advance, but on that occasion the Ukrainian president also directed a remark toward Moscow that did not go unanswered there: he said Russia's May 9 parade would, "for the first time in many years," go ahead without heavy equipment, because Russia "cannot afford the military equipment and is worried that drones will buzz over Red Square." OC Media ↗

On Thursday, May 7, Pashinyan confirmed to journalists what he had already stated in 2022 and 2023: "On the issue of Ukraine, we are not allies of Russia." He added that Armenia had sent humanitarian aid to Kyiv and that he would not be in Moscow on May 9. Shortly afterward, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Armenian Ambassador Gurgen Arsenyan — Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin conducted the meeting, and a diplomatic note stated that Yerevan had provided a "platform" for Zelensky's "terrorist statements." At a separate briefing, ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called Zelensky a "terrorist." Kyiv Independent ↗ OC Media ↗ The Defense Post ↗

Putin's Saturday press conference fit into a series of Russian reactions to the Yerevan summits.

A shift that is no longer recent

Armenia's movement toward the West did not begin in Yerevan last week. In 2023, it ratified the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court — the very court that in the same year issued an arrest warrant for Putin over the deportation of Ukrainian children. Shortly after the nine-month blockade of the Lachin Corridor, which began in December 2022, came the Azerbaijani offensive of September 19–20, 2023, against the remainder of Nagorno-Karabakh. It lasted roughly a day and forced the surrender of local forces. The unrecognized Republic of Artsakh announced its own dissolution on September 28, 2023, effective January 1, 2024, and tens of thousands of Armenian residents fled to their own country. A few months later, Yerevan suspended its membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) — blaming Moscow, as security guarantor, for failing to intervene. CNN ↗ The Defense Post ↗

A political shift followed. On March 26, 2025, the Armenian parliament passed a law, with 64 votes, launching the process of EU accession — instructing the government to open the formal path. In October 2025, Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan reportedly indicated that Armenia would submit an official application for EU membership sometime in 2026. In parallel, security agreements with the EU and NATO were added, along with French deliveries of self-defense systems and military purchases from India. Russia's 102nd military base in Gyumri remains in place, but in August 2025 a protest demonstration took place outside its gates demanding the withdrawal of the Russian contingent. JURIST ↗ ARKA.am ↗ The Moscow Times ↗

Why now: the June 7 election

Moscow's sudden opening of the referendum topic does not exist in a vacuum. Armenia is heading to parliamentary elections on June 7, 2026, and Pashinyan's Civil Contract party will be defending its majority primarily against an opposition with rhetoric more accommodating toward Moscow — among the main challengers are the Armenia Alliance, led by former president Robert Kocharyan, and the Strong Armenia party, led by businessman Samvel Karapetyan. A publicly cited poll by the EMPIRICA agency gives Karapetyan a slight lead in a direct choice as of March 2026, at 34 percent versus 33 percent for Pashinyan, with Karapetyan's lead more pronounced in the capital. The prime minister has repeatedly emphasized that a decision on EU membership would require a referendum and a constitutional amendment. Putin's offer of a "divorce" hands the opposition sharp-sounding rhetoric — and signals to Civil Contract voters that pressure is coming straight from the Kremlin. Wikipedia: 2026 Armenian parliamentary election ↗ PanARMENIAN: EMPIRICA poll ↗

There is no single answer to the question of "what Moscow would do in a 'Ukrainian scenario.'" Armenia is a landlocked state with closed borders with two of its four neighbors — Turkey and Azerbaijan — and Russia maintains its 102nd military base in Gyumri, with about three thousand troops and a bilateral treaty allowing its presence until 2044. In open-source analyses, economic, energy, and information leverage are for now mentioned more often than direct military attack: Russian gas, remittances from Armenian workers in Russia, and media and party networks with a pro-Russian orientation. Putin's own army is tied down in Ukraine, and analysts from both Armenian and international circles therefore do not consider an open military operation in the South Caucasus a likely scenario in the short term. The Moscow Times ↗ RFE/RL ↗

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