Hungary corrected Orbán's troop numbers for NATO. Slovakia lowered its estimates in the same table even more sharply

The government of Péter Magyar retroactively corrected the troop numbers that Orbán's government had reported to the North Atlantic Alliance for years: for 2023, there were 2,500 fewer than Fidesz claimed, which according to HVG amounts to roughly one medium brigade. The latest NATO statistics, in which the correction is visible for the first time, also show a second thing that no one mentioned on Monday. Slovakia lowered its estimates for 2024 and 2025 in the same table even more sharply than Hungary did, and in the entire alliance it was surpassed only by Turkey. Unlike Hungary, however, it did not change the finalized figure for 2023. HVG ↗

What Hungary corrected

NATO member states send the alliance an annual estimate of how many troops they have, and the alliance publishes the main figures in its annual statistics. The Hungarian defense ministry, led by Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky, reported 20,100 troops for 2023 and did not correct the figure before the end of its term. The new ministry leadership, headed since May by former chief of the general staff Romulusz Ruszin-Szendi, recalculated it to 17,600 — 12.4 percent less. Index ↗

It wasn't the only year. The estimate for 2024 dropped from 20,900 to 18,700 troops, and for 2025 from 21,600 to 19,900. For 2026, the new government has already reported 20,600 troops. The corrected figures appear in the table NATO published in July; the news site HVG compared them with the older version only now. Telex ↗

Why this is unusual

Retroactive corrections are nothing exceptional within the alliance — states send estimates and later refine them. NATO's total troop count for 2023 thus fell by 3 percent, or more than 100,000 people, of which nearly 90 percent is attributable to Turkey. After two years, however, the figure is no longer an estimate but a finalized number, and correcting such a number by 12 percent is rare. Only Turkey (by 19 percent) and Finland (by 16 percent) reduced their 2023 figure more. NATO ↗

The Hungarian defense ministry explained to HVG that troop numbers in 2023 dropped significantly due to the "rejuvenation" of the army carried out by the previous government and the transfer of the military hospital under the interior ministry. That, however, explains why troops decreased, not why the Fidesz ministry never reflected this change in its reports. Aktuality.sk (TASR) ↗

Slovak figures in the same table

Slovak media on Monday picked up the report about Hungary. No one looked at the Slovak row of the same table. As recently as August 2025, Slovakia estimated it had 15,600 troops in 2024 and would have 16,900 in 2025. In the July edition, the actual figure for 2024 is 12,900 troops and the estimate for 2025 is 13,500. The difference is 2,700 and 3,400 troops respectively, i.e. 17 and 20 percent. NATO (2025 edition) ↗

In both years, this is the second-largest reduction in the alliance after Turkey. Hungary lowered its 2024 estimate by 10.6 percent and its 2025 estimate by 7.9 percent, Czechia by 5 and 6 percent, while Poland actually slightly raised its estimates. The estimates that turned out a year later to be overstated were sent to the alliance by the ministry led by Robert Kaliňák, who has headed it since autumn 2023. NATO ↗

Minister Kaliňák, meanwhile, declared last December that 2025 was the best year since the founding of the armed forces and announced that their ranks would grow by 1,200 troops. NATO's table estimates a growth of 600 between 2024 and 2025. However, the 2025 figure is still only an estimate, and the ministry may calculate it differently than the alliance's common methodology. SITA ↗

Limits of this comparison

The Slovak and Hungarian cases are not the same. Hungary also corrected the finalized figure for 2023, while Slovakia left it almost unchanged (13,000 troops) and only lowered its estimates. An overstated estimate can mean an unmet recruitment plan as well as a change in who the ministry counts toward the total. NATO's table does not give a reason, and the Slovak defense ministry has not publicly explained it. Moreover, the number of troops does not change the level of defense spending, so it does not affect whether the state meets its two-percent-of-GDP commitment. NATO ↗

HVG is critical of Orbán and already wrote in its headline that Fidesz "cosmeticized" the data. The new ministry leadership, in turn, came from the party that defeated Fidesz in the elections and has an interest in discrediting its predecessors' figures. The numerical difference in NATO's tables, however, is verifiable regardless of who frames it. SME (TASR) ↗

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