This will be the first parade of Putin's era without tanks, missile systems, and armored personnel carriers. The military column became a permanent part of the May 9 celebrations only after the 2008 reorganization; before that, from 1995 to 2007, the parade ran without heavy equipment and was limited to a marching component. This year's format is therefore not formally unprecedented, but in the context of the fourth year of the war in Ukraine, it reads differently. Wikipedia ↗
The Kremlin cites "terrorist activity," analysts speak of weakness
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov justified the decision by citing increased "terrorist activity" on the part of Kyiv. aktuality.sk ↗ British analyst Natia Seskuria of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) told AP that the decision "signals a degree of vulnerability rather than strength" — according to her, it is a combination of security concerns and practical military considerations, including preserving equipment for the front and an effort not to highlight battlefield losses. AP via Local10 ↗Ukraine's General Staff claims that Russia has lost 11,894 tanks and 24,486 armored combat vehicles since February 2022 — the figures cannot be independently verified, but Western analytical outlets such as Oryx or the British IISS confirm them in roughly the same order of magnitude. Euromaidan Press ↗ In recent weeks, the Ukrainian army has expanded drone strikes deep into the Russian rear. It hit the Baltic port of Ust-Luga, the Samara region, and on Tuesday an oil facility near Perm, 1,500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. lidovky.cz ↗
According to the BBC, Russian war bloggers had already noticed several days ago that the traditional closures of Moscow streets for dress rehearsals had not taken place — a signal that the scaled-back format of the parade had been in preparation longer than was officially admitted. pravda.sk ↗ Last year, more than 10,000 soldiers marched in the parade, including 1,500 participants in the fighting in Ukraine, more than 180 pieces of equipment were on display, and Putin's "guest of honor" was Chinese President Xi Jinping. This year, the Ministry of Defense promises only a marching column of cadets, an air component with Su-25 fighter jets, and a video projection of soldiers deployed in Ukraine. The Moscow Times ↗
Fico will officially skip the parade, but will still attend the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier
On Wednesday, Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov confirmed to the TASS and RIA Novosti agencies that Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico would attend the Moscow "celebrations." "A lot is being said about Fico, so I can confirm that he will attend," Ushakov told reporters. hnonline.sk ↗However, neither Ushakov's statement nor the prevailing Slovak headlines specify exactly what the prime minister plans to do — and on this point, Slovak coverage diverges from international sources. Fico announced on April 22 that he would not attend the military parade itself and would limit himself to a commemorative act at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in the Alexander Garden by the Kremlin. He has reframed the visit as a "pilgrimage for peace" and added stops in Munich and at the former Dachau concentration camp to the itinerary. Euromaidan Press ↗
Last year, Fico, together with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, was the only prime minister from an EU member state at the parade itself and held bilateral talks with both Putin and Xi Jinping. CNN ↗ For 2026, the Kremlin has so far not publicly confirmed any other EU head of state or Xi Jinping; the only confirmed Western ally is Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. pravda.sk ↗
Flight routes as a diplomatic chessboard
The Baltic states are complicating Fico's trip. Estonia announced on April 19 that it would not permit the government special flight to fly over its territory, and Lithuania and Latvia later followed suit. Estonian World ↗ Slovakia requested overflight permission from Poland, and Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said on Monday, April 28, that "the problem with the Slovak prime minister's route through Poland no longer exists." pravda.sk ↗ If Warsaw were to refuse after all, Fico would repeat last year's southern route via Hungary, Romania, and over the Black Sea, or — according to Pravda.com.ua — travel by car. Euromaidan Press ↗The EU's chief diplomat, Kaja Kallas, already warned publicly back in May 2025 that "any participation in the May 9 parades in Moscow will not be taken lightly on the European side." Euronews ↗ Fico responded at the time that he was "the legitimate prime minister of a sovereign country" and that no one could dictate where he should or should not travel. This year, no similarly sharp exchange has occurred so far; in the meantime, Fico has moved his visit outside the parade itself, and Brussels has not yet engaged in public confrontation over it. Kyiv Independent ↗
