The Emirates are OPEC's third-largest producer, and their capacity of 4.8 million barrels per day accounts for about 15 percent of the cartel's total capacity. Member quotas have long kept their output below capacity — before the war, the UAE was producing roughly 3.4 million barrels per day. Saul Kavonic of MST Financial calls it "the beginning of the end of OPEC" — the departure of one of the most disciplined members, and the only country besides Saudi Arabia with spare capacity to flexibly offset market fluctuations. BBC ↗ Al Jazeera ↗
For Saudi Arabia, which effectively leads the cartel, losing this partner is painful. Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, says the cartel has lost one of its few "stabilizing safeguards" — Saudi Arabia will now "have to carry a bigger part of the burden of price stability" on its own. In the short term, the impact will remain muted by paralyzed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, but in the long run, according to Leon, OPEC will be "structurally weaker" and setting supply will become increasingly difficult. David Oxley of Capital Economics adds that an unbound UAE will be able to push prices down in the future, but at the cost of higher volatility. Al Jazeera ↗ BBC ↗
Part of the media also reads the UAE's departure through the lens of pressure from the White House. In January, Donald Trump publicly called on Saudi Arabia and OPEC to "lower the price of oil" and accused the cartel of "ripping off the rest of the world." Newsweek notes that the US president openly tied military protection of the Persian Gulf to the cartel members' pricing policy — while the US defends them, cartel members, in his view, charge "absurdly high" prices. The Guardian called the UAE's exit "a big win for Trump" — Washington gains an ally that can flood the market with oil regardless of whatever Riyadh agrees with the remaining 11 OPEC members. Newsweek ↗ The Guardian ↗
Read also: Rubio criticizes Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump appears skeptical of Tehran's proposal
According to analysts, the timing highlights how the war with Iran is shifting the balance within the cartel. In March, according to the World Bank, OPEC lost the most output in its history — production fell by 27 percent to 20.79 million barrels per day, as the Strait of Hormuz was de facto closed due to the war with Iran. Iranian oil remained trapped inside the country, with storage facilities and floating tankers full. On Tuesday morning, however, Bloomberg recorded, based on shipping data, that the first LNG tanker since the start of the conflict passed through the strait — the Emirati vessel Mubaraz, loaded with gas from the UAE's Das Island terminal and operated by the state company Adnoc. The World Bank estimates that average energy prices in 2026 will rise by about a quarter — the most since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Bloomberg ↗ The Guardian ↗
Tension between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh is nothing new. The Emirates have long sought higher production quotas, compete with Saudi Arabia for foreign investment, and openly favor a different strategy in the Yemen war against the Houthis. During the war with Iran, the Emirati government, according to Bloomberg, leveled sharp criticism at other Arab states — without formally naming anyone. In this context, the UAE's departure also comes across as a rejection of the quota discipline that Riyadh has been trying to maintain in recent months. Ajay Parmar, director of energy at the analytics firm ICIS, told Al Jazeera that the UAE "has disagreed with OPEC's general policy for some time, so this isn't a surprise — but it will have a significant impact in the long run." Bloomberg ↗ Al Jazeera ↗
What hotinfo is watching
- How Saudi Arabia and Russia respond — whether OPEC+ will call an emergency meeting and whether it will try to compensate for the UAE's departure by adjusting quotas for the remaining 11 members.
- Whether another "dissatisfied" member follows the UAE — analysts have long mentioned Iraq and Nigeria, which are also struggling with low quotas.
- The real impact on output: the UAE has a theoretical reserve of more than a million barrels per day; according to Capital Economics, once shipping through Hormuz resumes, it could add approximately 1 million barrels per day. The question is how quickly this will be activated and what agreement will emerge with the US Treasury Department, which, according to Fortune, has just negotiated new currency swap lines with Abu Dhabi.
- The progress of the war in Iran and the reopening of Hormuz — the World Bank estimates six months before shipping returns to pre-war levels.
- The impact on Slovakia and Central Europe: fuel and gas prices for the winter of 2026/27, which will be equally sensitive to the outcome of negotiations between the White House, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
