Ceasefire with Iran collapses, USA bombs for sixth night. War now engulfs the Persian Gulf

For the sixth night in a row, American forces struck Iran and the ceasefire that was supposed to stop the war is definitively dead. Tehran responds with fire on states that host American forces — Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan report air defense interceptions and in Qatar shrapnel wounded a child. While President Donald Trump claims live on air that the USA is "winning magnificently," his own vice president accuses Israel of artificially prolonging the war. CNN ↗ Three days later, it was already the ninth night of strikes. Trump justified them with the deaths of three American soldiers, Iran responded with attacks on tankers directly in the Strait of Hormuz and Brent crude exceeded $90. By July 21st, strikes had increased to ten in a row, a tanker in the Strait was hit by an unknown projectile and the Houthis announced a naval blockade of the Red Sea — the war spread to two global oil arteries at once. By July 22nd, strikes had increased to eleven in a row and air defense activated over Tehran. Diplomacy froze and the paradox deepened: in the same week that the USA bombs Iranian uranium enrichment, Trump allowed Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium. By July 26th, the war had turned: according to Axios, Trump suspended strikes on Iran to give diplomacy a chance — Tehran, however, denies serious negotiations. Houthis hit refineries in Riyadh, Greek Patriot air defense shot down two missiles over Saudi Arabia and 6,500 sailors were stranded in the Gulf. Three days later, the ceasefire definitively collapsed: Iran's Revolutionary Guards fired ballistic missiles at an American base in Jordan, Jordan reports intercepting five missiles, the USA and Saudi Arabia responded with strikes on pro-Iran militias in Iraq and Tehran claims it also hit three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz — meanwhile, Oman proposed to Iran joint management of the strait.

A Ceasefire That Didn't Last Long

Update July 29. The ceasefire Trump declared just three days ago has collapsed. Iranian Revolutionary Guards, according to Iranian and American sources, fired ballistic missiles at an American base in Jordan — the Jordanian military reports intercepting five missiles, Washington claims it repelled the attack. The Irish Times ↗ Mediapart ↗ The USA and Saudi Arabia subsequently responded with strikes on pro-Iranian militias directly in Iraq. De Standaard ↗ El País ↗ France 24 ↗

Update July 26. After four days came the first major reversal in the opposite direction: according to Axios, Trump ordered a halt to strikes on Iran to give diplomacy a chance. Ukrajinska pravda ↗ Trouw ↗ Tehran, however, denies that "serious" negotiations are taking place with Washington — the war is thus more on pause than at a ceasefire. Het Laatste Nieuws ↗ AD ↗ Iran's foreign minister meanwhile called for "dialogue" between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis and claims their conflict has no military solution. Le Monde ↗

Fighting reignited after the ceasefire agreement collapsed, and strikes over the past week were intensifying. American Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that it completed the latest "major wave" of strikes Thursday late in the evening — it was the sixth night of attacks in a row. According to the command, fighter jets, drones and warships struck dozens of Iranian military targets: coastal radars, air defense, logistics and naval capabilities. Politico ↗

Neither side has yet publicly indicated willingness to return to negotiations. American command claims Iran bears responsibility for recent attacks on commercial shipping. HN ↗

Update July 22. Strikes reached the eleventh consecutive night and air defense systems were activated over Tehran. Cumhuriyet ↗ Nova ↗ Morgunblaðið ↗ Diplomacy continues to fail: according to Serbian N1, efforts to restore the ceasefire remain unsuccessful and American Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Iran is not taking peace talks seriously. N1 ↗ Irish Times ↗

Costs were also rising. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth estimated the war against Iran at $37.5 billion and is requesting another $67 billion — at the hearing Democrats confronted him and called it a "failure". RTV Slovenija ↗ RTP ↗ LSM ↗ The Macedonian portal MKD.mk quotes Trump, according to whom 18 American soldiers have been killed in the war so far. MKD.mk ↗

Bridges, Airports and Dead in Southern Iran

Update July 26. Revolutionary Guards claim that in two weeks they killed more than two hundred American soldiers — the number is not independently verified. La Repubblica ↗ Swiss NZZ analyzes why Iran's strikes are increasingly accurate, and models what a further American bunker-busting bomb attack would look like. Neue Zürcher Zeitung ↗ Neue Zürcher Zeitung ↗ German n-tv and Austrian Kurier write that the Iranian side apparently planned a missile attack on Trump's aircraft — that was supposedly the reason for the aircraft swap. n-tv ↗ Kurier ↗ American intelligence according to Bosnian Klix simultaneously claims that Mujtaba Khamenei is more open to nuclear weapons development than his father. Klix.ba ↗ Turkish Hürriyet brought a report on how everyday life stopped in the shadow of war: "Iranians are unhappy, tired and frightened." Hürriyet ↗

Strikes concentrated on southern Iran around the Strait of Hormuz, but some also hit deeper inland. Iranian media report hit bridges near the port city of Bandar Abbas, a railway junction and an airport in the city of Iranshahr near the Pakistani border, and damaged power lines. Tagesschau ↗

According to Iranian semi-official agencies Fars and Tasnim, the strikes on the bridges claimed at least seven dead and nine wounded. CNN was unable to independently verify these claims, but it did confirm one of the photos of the damaged bridge through geolocation. ANSA ↗

Contradictory reports have emerged about the condition of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. According to the Iranian president, cited by Dutch newspaper De Telegraaf, Khamenei is wounded after the strikes but remains in contact with the leadership. Icelandic Vísir even reports his death. The condition of the leader cannot be independently confirmed. De Telegraaf ↗ Vísir ↗

War Reached the Persian Gulf

Update July 26. A second front has fully opened. The Houthis struck refineries in Riyadh and broke the ceasefire with Saudi Arabia; Le Monde writes about two countries on the brink of a new war. La Repubblica ↗ Le Monde ↗ Riyadh responded with attacks on the Houthis in Yemen and the Arab coalition announced a military strike. De Standaard ↗ Protothema ↗ Europe entered directly into the defense of Saudi oil infrastructure: Greek Patriot systems shot down two Houthi missiles and another drone over Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Defense Minister thanked the Greek ministry by phone for this. La Repubblica ↗ To Vima ↗ Protothema ↗ The Houthis meanwhile clarified their strategy: "We are not closing Bab al-Mandab." La Libre ↗ NZZ returns to the trigger of the entire escalation and asks who actually bombed the airport in Sana. Neue Zürcher Zeitung ↗

A new dimension of the conflict is that fire also falls on Arab monarchies that host American forces. Iran is targeting American bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan — Kuwait announced that it is responding to missile and drone threats, and in Bahrain, where the headquarters of the American 5th Fleet is located, sirens sounded. HN ↗

Qatar, which has a less hostile relationship with Tehran and acts as a mediator in the entire conflict, announced that it intercepted a missile attack. Shrapnel from the shot-down missile injured a child. Gulf states fear further escalation and are pushing for its cessation. Tagesschau ↗

Qatar's position is, however, ambiguous. According to Czech Television, the emirate was supposed to secretly help Iran financially and militarily — which would make it simultaneously a target, mediator and partner of both sides. ČT24 ↗

Update July 20. Strikes continued without interruption until nine in the evening. Trump justified them this time with retaliation — in Iraq, an American soldier died from the detonation of an Iranian drone, the third in 72 hours, and the president declared that the USA struck Iran "in honor" of the fallen. The Hill ↗ RTÉ ↗ Spiegel ↗

Disagreement over casualties also extended to the Republican camp — congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene publicly criticized the way Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth honored the memory of fallen soldiers. The Hill ↗

The USA is moving additional fighter jets to the Middle East and Austrian Kurier writes about fears of the spread of war. Kurier ↗ Die Zeit ↗ Iran meanwhile accused Washington of striking a nuclear power plant construction site. SRF ↗

Update July 21. Strikes did not stop — American command announced already the tenth night of attacks in a row. Tagesschau ↗ Der Standard ↗ At the same time, the first sign of diplomacy appeared: according to German media, mediators presented the parties with a new ceasefire proposal. SRF ↗ Welt ↗

Trump intensified his rhetoric. He declared that for every killed American soldier, Iran will "pay several times over" — according to German media, Jordan is becoming a front-line state between the USA and Iran. La Libre ↗ Spiegel ↗ According to Handelsblatt and Irish Independent, meanwhile the Pentagon concealed dozens of injuries to its own soldiers in this war. Handelsblatt ↗ Irish Independent ↗

Tension also spread to diplomacy: Iran held two French diplomats for several hours, physically assaulting one of them. Paris called this an "extremely serious act of intimidation." BFM TV ↗ Le Monde ↗

Hormuz as a "Red Line" and Oil Lever

Update July 29. The battlefield has shifted to the sea again. Iran's Revolutionary Guards claim to have hit three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz — the claim has not been independently verified. de Volkskrant ↗ TRT Haber ↗ Meanwhile, Oman attempted mediation and proposed joint management of the strait to Iran, although both sides currently have conflicting views on its form. De Telegraaf ↗ de Volkskrant ↗

Update July 26. Hormuz remains blocked and human costs are mounting: according to La Repubblica, 6,500 sailors are stranded in the Gulf and "the sea is a hostage, the crisis is already global." La Repubblica ↗ The British maritime security agency reports another tanker incident, Iran claims to have stopped four vessels, and a tanker under the Mozambican flag was attacked in Iranian waters. BFM TV ↗ RTP ↗ Tehran's economic leverage is working: Iran claims to have sold oil for 18 billion dollars in five months of war, and according to Iceland's RÚV, its revenues so far align with its annual plan. Le Figaro ↗ RÚV ↗ Spanish El País sums it up directly: Iran accepts the price of war to maintain strategic control of the strait — and analyzes what a prolonged blockade would mean. El País ↗ El País ↗ The Financial Times meanwhile writes that China is pouring money into green energy deals precisely because the Iranian war is dampening oil demand. Financial Times ↗

Iran warns that the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of global oil consumption passes, is a "red line that cannot be crossed." The US has meanwhile resumed a naval blockade of Iranian ports, and American sailors boarded an empty tanker heading to Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export terminal. The Guardian ↗

Tehran meanwhile, according to multiple media reports, has asked its allied Houthis in Yemen to prepare to also close the Red Sea route — which would deal a second blow to the global oil market. Aktuality.sk ↗ According to Czech media, Trump is also considering a ground operation and the occupation of part of the coastline or islands in the Gulf. iDnes ↗

The threat has meanwhile become reality. Iran's Revolutionary Guards announced they hit two oil tankers in the strait — one of the vessels was on fire — and Tehran detained two more vessels. ANSA ↗ Naftemporiki ↗ Die Presse ↗

The most concrete figure came from Bulgarian newspaper 24 Chasa: only four vessels passed through the strait in an entire day. 24 Chasa ↗ 24 Chasa ↗ Despite this, Washington claims that the flow of oil through Hormuz has not stopped. Naftemporiki ↗ Iraq is already examining the construction of a new pipeline to the Mediterranean, which would bypass the strait. 24 Chasa ↗

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio adopted a new tone: according to him, Iran is using Hormuz "as a lever" on the entire world and other countries must help bear the burden — effectively a call to allies to join in securing the strait. ANSA ↗ n-tv ↗

The economic impact is already being felt in Europe. Brent crude has exceeded $90, the highest since mid-June Handelsblatt ↗ BFM TV ↗, fuel prices have risen in Italy and France ANSA ↗ and La Stampa writes that the war is reviving inflationary risk precisely in the week the ECB decides on rates. La Stampa ↗

The battle for Hormuz has intensified. During the night into Tuesday, an unknown projectile of unknown origin hit one of the tankers in the strait BFM TV ↗ and the British maritime agency reports another hit vessel. Het Laatste Nieuws ↗ Meanwhile, the fewest vessels passed through the strait in the past month. De Morgen ↗

War opened a second naval front. Yemeni Houthis declared a naval blockade of the Bab al-Mandab Strait against Saudi Arabia — a step that, according to Le Monde and Courrier International, raises fears of conflict expansion and threatens the route through the Red Sea. Le Monde ↗ Courrier International ↗ Irish Independent ↗

It affected air transport. Air France suspended flights to Riyadh (until July 24) and to Dubai (until July 27) for security reasons BFM TV ↗, while budget carrier Ryanair saw profits fall by 34 percent due to uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. ABC ↗ Der Standard ↗

A possible further target also emerged. According to the Wall Street Journal, Israel estimates that Iran moved part of the centrifuges for uranium enrichment to an underground complex in Pickaxe Mountain. Naftemporiki ↗ Il Giornale ↗

Houthi blockade expands. Yemeni rebels, according to Serbian N1, formally declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea, and Polish Onet writes that they are closing another strait — whereby, according to it, Trump's plan falls apart. N1 ↗ Onet ↗

The war also affected NATO member states. Iran sent Bulgaria a diplomatic note concerning American aircraft at the Bezmer base, deployed according to an agreement from 2006. Former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov is calling for an immediate convening of the Security Council and parliament is to vote on the presence of American aircraft. 24 Chasa ↗ 24 Chasa ↗ 24 Chasa ↗

Amid the war, a nuclear paradox emerged: in the same week when the USA is bombing Iran for uranium enrichment, Trump approved an agreement that will allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium — critics point out the missing protective clauses. Albanian Balkanweb asks whether the entire struggle over Hormuz is not ultimately a victory for Russia and China. El Confidencial ↗ Tages-Anzeiger ↗ Balkanweb ↗

Discord Within Washington Itself

Update July 26. A material reason also emerged for why Washington backed down. According to The New York Times, as cited by ANSA, Trump postponed the escalation partly due to the risk of depleting Patriot missile stockpiles. ANSA ↗ Trump meanwhile stated that shipping damages will be compensated by frozen Iranian assets. Trouw ↗ Tehran meanwhile extended threats to London: according to him, Britain could become "a certain and justified target." Onet ↗ American The Hill writes that Trump faces pressure before Sunday discussion shows to explain how the war will end as it expands in the meantime. The Hill ↗

Despite escalation, the White House states that it continues to negotiate with Tehran and Trump is "open to a deal." However, just a few hours after this statement, the military launched another wave of strikes. TA3 ↗

In Thursday evening's address to the nation, Trump barely mentioned the war — he said only that the USA "are winning big." According to a survey by the Washington Post and Ipsos, only 29 percent of Americans approve of his handling of the conflict. CNN ↗ There are cracks within the administration as well: Vice President JD Vance accused Israel of "manipulating" American public opinion to prolong the war. BBC ↗

What Hotinfo is Tracking

• Whether Iran will really close the Strait of Hormuz or via the goose route through the Red Sea — and what that will do to oil and gas prices.

- Whether Trump will approve a ground operation and occupation of the coast in the Gulf, or will remain with air strikes.

- Whether any of the Gulf monarchies, especially Qatar, will publicly take sides, or will maintain the role of mediator.

- Deepening of the discord between Trump, Vance and Israel within the Washington administration.

- Whether negotiations will resume via Qatari mediation, or diplomacy will definitively end.