"Political gossips chose crisis over a solution"
The fifty-year-old liberal-conservative prime minister, who had governed since September 2023 as only the second woman to lead the Latvian government in history, declared at a press conference: "I am resigning, but I am not giving up." She addressed a sharp sentence to the Progressives, saying that "at this moment political jealousy and narrow party interests have taken precedence over responsibility" and that "political gossips chose crisis instead of a solution." Welt ↗After the Progressives, with their nine MPs, withdrew support, the coalition lost its narrow majority in the hundred-seat Saeima: the governing bloc held 41 seats, the opposition 47, with the rest fragmented. Le Figaro ↗ President Rinkēvičs announced that on Friday, May 15, he would convene all parliamentary parties for consultations on a new government. Three opposition formations have already declared their willingness to cooperate, including the previously governing Union of Greens and Farmers — but even together they do not yet have a majority. Politico Europe ↗
A chain of four days
The crisis was triggered by the incident of May 7 at 3:30 a.m., when two Ukrainian drones fell near the Latvian-Russian border. According to the BBC, one struck empty oil tanks on Komunālā Street in Rēzekne — a fire broke out, which firefighters quickly extinguished. A third drone crossed Latvian airspace and returned. There were no casualties and no major damage either — but residents later told media that the Cell Broadcast warning system was sent out an hour after the impact. BBC ↗On Sunday, May 10, Siliņa declared that Sprūds had "lost her trust and that of the public," because "the political leadership of the defense ministry failed to fulfill the promise of a safe sky over the country," and asked him to resign. Sprūds, a member of the Progressives, submitted his resignation — the party claimed the prime minister had "used him as insurance." Siliņa subsequently nominated army colonel Raivis Melnis for the defense post — an officer currently serving with the Ukrainian armed forces — rather than a nominee from the coalition partner. That was the last straw: on Wednesday, May 13, the Progressives withdrew their support. The Guardian ↗
Just before her own resignation, Siliņa managed to suspend Agriculture Minister Armands Krauze of the Union of Greens and Farmers — the anti-corruption bureau KNAB had detained him as part of an investigation into a case in the timber industry. The second coalition partner thus also lost a minister within the span of a single day. Welt ↗
Drones that did not begin on May 7
Rēzekne was not the first incident. Since the end of March, Ukrainian drones have been falling on all three Baltic countries. The first major series came on March 25, when an unmanned aircraft struck the chimney of the Estonian Auvere power plant in Ida-Viru, 25 kilometers from the Russian border, and other aircraft fell in Latvia and Lithuania. The investigation showed these were Ukrainian drones diverted from their trajectory after a major strike on the Russian oil port of Ust-Luga. BBC ↗The second wave came on March 31 and April 1, when both Estonia and Latvia reported movements of foreign aircraft over the border with Russia. On April 12, Estonians found drone debris on a beach. On May 3, Estonia and Finland registered an airspace violation. On May 9, the day of Russia's military parade in Moscow, a military reconnaissance-type drone bearing Cyrillic inscriptions landed in a Polish field near Bartoszyce, 20 kilometers from the Russian border — its attribution has still not been officially confirmed. NOS ↗
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stated on Sunday that the incidents are "the result of Russian electronic warfare that deliberately diverts Ukrainian drones from targets in Russia." President Volodymyr Zelenskyy subsequently, on the sidelines of the Bucharest summit on Wednesday, May 13, offered President Rinkēvičs to send Ukrainian experts to Latvia and to conclude a bilateral agreement referred to as the Drone Deal on multi-layered air defense. Le Figaro ↗
Also read: Two days before Putin's parade: drones near Rēzekne, ABW uncovers sabotage cells, Mentzen attacks the army chief
NATO's eastern flank heading into summer without a stable Riga
Latvia, which introduced mandatory military service after the Russian invasion and, according to Siliņa, spends five percent of GDP on defense, faces political pressure similar to that of the other two Baltic states, where March incidents involving Ukrainian drones triggered parliamentary debates about military readiness. Estonia's power plant in Ida-Viru drew criticism in March over response time, Lithuania tightened its border regime after drones near Vilnius — and Latvia now has neither a fully functioning government nor an approved defense minister to run the ministry between May and the October elections. Der Standard ↗The Guardian, citing the head of the Latvian armed forces, reports that radars did not detect the drones on May 7. Siliņa blamed Sprūds for this — criticizing the slow construction of anti-drone systems in the ministry he had run since 2023. It remains an open question whether Colonel Melnis's nomination will hold after negotiations on a new government, and whether Zelenskyy's offer will develop into a signed agreement. Independent ↗
For Riga, the biggest political problem is that even drones aimed at Russia can, once diverted, strike the domestic security system before the state can convincingly explain its own response.
What hotinfo is watching
- May 15–16 — who will be tasked with forming a government after Rinkēvičs's Friday meeting. A caretaker cabinet until the October 3 elections is also in play.
- Colonel Raivis Melnis — whether his nomination as defense chief holds after the change of government, or whether the new cabinet selects a different candidate.
- Riga–Kyiv Drone Deal — whether Zelenskyy's offer of Ukrainian experts and the multi-layered air defense agreement reaches signature, or remains at the level of a statement.
- Cell Broadcast Rēzekne — the investigation into why the warning system reached residents only an hour after impact, and the political impact on the new defense ministry.
- KNAB and Krauze — the outcome of the investigation into the timber case. The suspension of the agriculture minister could also destabilize the Union of Greens and Farmers ahead of the elections.
- Estonia and Lithuania — whether the Estonian and Lithuanian parliaments reopen the question of air defense readiness following further incidents near the borders.
