The State Department declined to comment, but one *Semafor* source confirmed that discussions about a reset "have been in the works for a long time." Cameron Hudson, a former White House Africa official and senior fellow at CSIS, warns against a recurring American mistake: "Every administration has at some point thought it could tame Isaias." Semafor ↗
The Ethiopian outlet *The Reporter* adds a motive: Boulos's move comes at a moment when Iran-aligned Houthis are threatening to close the strategic Bab al-Mandeb strait to shipping following the US-Israeli war on Iran. Eritrea controls roughly 1,200 km of the Red Sea's western coastline and two deep-water ports — Massawa and Assab. For Washington, this is a map it cannot ignore. The Reporter Ethiopia ↗
Africa's North Korea, Which Trump Needs
Eritrea is often described in foreign media as a "North Korean" model on the African continent — and not without reason. Since the liberation entry of the rebel EPLF into Asmara in May 1991, formally recognized after a 1993 referendum, the country has been led by one man — Isaias Afwerki — with no elections, no constitution in force, and no tolerated opposition. The UN Commission on Human Rights in Eritrea concluded in 2016 that the system of compulsory military service — formally 18 months, but in practice indefinite — constitutes crimes against humanity, including enslavement, torture, and enforced disappearance. Human Rights Watch has documented that since late 2022 the government has escalated repression against the families of conscripts who attempt to evade the draft. Human Rights Watch ↗It was precisely because of this record that Washington, on November 12, 2021, imposed targeted sanctions on six Eritrean entities: the ruling PFDJ party, the Eritrean Defense Forces, the holding company Hidri Trust, the financial group Red Sea Trading Corporation, and two top officials — security chief Abraha Kassa Nemariam and PFDJ economic adviser Hagos Ghebrehiwet W. Kidan. The sanctions were introduced by the Biden administration under Executive Order 14046 for Eritrea's role in the Tigray war, which is estimated to have caused hundreds of thousands of casualties; international observers accused both Eritrean and Ethiopian forces of mass rapes and ethnically motivated executions. US Treasury OFAC ↗
Even Trump's own administration, as recently as last year — via a White House proclamation dated June 4, 2025, effective June 9 — placed Eritrea among the countries subject to a full US travel ban. The stated reasons: according to the proclamation, Washington doubts "the competent central authority's capacity to issue passports and civil documents," states that criminal record data for Eritrean citizens is not available to the US, and points to Eritrea's refusal to accept the return of its own citizens and a high rate of visa overstays in the US. Less than a year later, the White House is negotiating a reset with that very same government. White House ↗
Iran and Russia Are in Massawa Ahead of Trump
Trump's plan has one problem, which the *Wall Street Journal* mentions more in passing: the very same ports meant to help the US "cut Iran off from the Red Sea" have, according to independent analysts, already been used by Iran for years. The Ethiopian think tank Horn Review claimed in March 2026 that Tehran has regained access since 2024 to the deep-water port of Assab and the Massawa anchorage. According to the same analysis, cargo flights linked to sanctioned Iranian entities have transported drone components through these ports, and in November 2025 Iran reportedly delivered drones directly to the Eritrean military. These claims have not been officially confirmed by Washington, but they form a central part of the strategic calculus described by the WSJ. Horn Review ↗The second player is Putin. After Eritrea became the only African country to vote against the UN resolution condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Afwerki traveled to Moscow twice. At the turn of March and April 2024, the Russian Pacific Fleet frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov docked in Massawa for a five-day visit marking the 30th anniversary of diplomatic ties, and in early April the Eritrean high command received a Russian delegation led by Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Navy Vladimir Kasatonov. Massawa has since signed a memorandum with Sevastopol — the occupied home port of Putin's Black Sea Fleet. British Africa analyst Martin Plaut, citing diplomatic sources, claims that Putin gave the green light in 2024 to build a Russian naval base on Eritrea's Dahlak Islands. Neither the Russian nor the Eritrean side has officially confirmed the base to date. Martin Plaut ↗
Egypt in the Leading Role
The Boulos–Afwerki meeting in Cairo was no accident arranged by Sisi. Egypt is running the most systematic African diplomatic and military campaign of recent years: according to sources cited by *The National*, it has sent as many as 15,000 troops to Somalia, negotiated a "degree of control" over the modernization of Eritrea's Assab port and Djibouti's Doraleh, and in October 2024 sealed a trilateral bloc of Eritrea–Egypt–Somalia seen as a counterweight to Ethiopia. The goal is explicit: to block Ethiopia's push for Red Sea access and to increase pressure on Addis Ababa in the dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. The National ↗For Trump, Sisi is a convenient partner. Egypt needed the same template Washington has applied to Egypt itself for years — a strategic partnership that overlooks domestic repression. Trump's letter to Afwerki, which Asmara reported receiving in the summer of 2025, promises to "restore a respectful and productive state-to-state relationship... based on honesty, respect, and opportunities for peace and prosperity in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea." For Eritrea's part, Afwerki said he is ready to "actively pursue a policy of constructive engagement" — on equal terms. Horn Review ↗
The Ethiopian Shadow Over the Whole Game
The second snag is Ethiopia. Eritrea and Ethiopia, after a brief peace from 2018–2020, are again on the brink of war. In mid-February 2026, Ethiopia publicly called on Eritrea to withdraw its troops from Ethiopian territory; Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed described Ethiopia's landlocked status as a "geographic prison" and has openly called for access to the port of Assab. Tigrayan forces are regrouping, and military mobilization is underway along the northern border. Washington's reset with Asmara would be read by Addis Ababa as an American green light for Eritrean positions on the border. Addis Standard ↗Even the State Department itself acknowledges that negotiations are not moving in a straight line: while it "is interested in deepening ties with Eritrea," it has not confirmed concrete plans to lift sanctions, and internal discussions are being slowed by competing crises in Iran and Gaza. Both Eritrea's ruling PFDJ party and the Eritrean opposition in exile see this moment as an opportunity to lobby in Washington, notes Cameron Hudson. Cameron Hudson, CSIS ↗
A symbolic date that has come up in the negotiations is May 24 — the 35th anniversary of the liberation of Asmara, which Eritrea marks as Independence Day. For Asmara, a partial easing of sanctions on that day would be a domestic victory for the regime. For Trump, it would be the first clear proof that his African policy of "trade, not aid" is producing tangible results. For Ethiopia, Tigray, the Houthis, and their Iranian patrons, it would signal that a US-Eritrean deal will not undo what Iran and Russia already have in Eritrea — Washington would simply be pulling up its own chair to the table. Addis Standard ↗
What hotinfo is tracking:
- May 24, 2026 — the 35th anniversary of the liberation of Asmara, which Eritrea marks as Independence Day. A symbolic date for a possible first-phase lifting of sanctions.
- Boulos's second meeting with Afwerki — according to *Semafor*, it is planned "soon." If it takes place in Asmara rather than Cairo, that would signal trust.
- Ethiopia's reaction — whether Abiy Ahmed escalates his "geographic prison" rhetoric and whether the Tigray front flares up.
- The Russian-Eritrean base — whether construction on the Dahlak Islands is progressing. It would be Russia's first naval base in Africa on a key maritime artery.
- Iranian shipments via Massawa — whether cargo flights from sanctioned Iranian entities stop (a test of Asmara's seriousness toward Washington).
- The stance of Saudi Arabia and the UAE — both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have long sought influence in Eritrea, and both governments have tense relations with Iran's presence in the region.
