Last-minute turnaround: US and Iran agree on temporary ceasefire, oil drops 15%

"The entire civilization will die tonight." Just hours after this warning, Donald Trump announced the exact opposite — a temporary ceasefire with Iran. NBC News ↗

On Tuesday, April 7, at 22:32 GMT, Trump posted on Truth Social an announcement of what he called a "mutual ceasefire" with Iran for a period of two weeks. The condition is the immediate and complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil flows. Al Jazeera ↗

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that if attacks on Iran stop, Iranian armed forces will end their defensive operations. Safe passage through Hormuz, he said, would be possible in coordination with Iranian forces. PressTV (Iranian state media) ↗

Pakistan played a key role in brokering the deal. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir asked Trump to extend the ultimatum just eleven hours before it was due to expire. Pakistan invited both delegations to talks in Islamabad, set to begin on Friday, April 10. Al Jazeera ↗ NBC News ↗

According to NBC News, Iran handed the United States a ten-point peace plan before the ceasefire announcement. Trump described it as a "usable basis for negotiations." According to available media reports, the plan includes a permanent ceasefire, the withdrawal of American forces from the region, the lifting of all sanctions, the unfreezing of Iranian assets, compensation for damages, and a binding UN Security Council resolution. NBC News ↗

Financial markets reacted immediately. According to NBC News, Dow Jones futures rose by approximately a thousand points, while the S&P 500 gained 2.5 percent and the Nasdaq 2.9 percent. The price of American WTI crude oil plunged 16 percent in response to the ceasefire news, falling below $94 a barrel — down from a daily high of $117. However, GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan warned that a two-week ceasefire likely does not mean an immediate resumption of shipments through the strait. NBC News ↗

Before the deal was announced, chaos reigned in the region. Kuwait and Bahrain urged residents to stay indoors. In Doha, Qatar, explosions were heard according to AFP, and sirens sounded in Bahrain. Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref declared that his country was "ready for all scenarios of war." Al Jazeera ↗

The ceasefire comes after roughly six weeks of fighting that, according to Al Jazeera, claimed at least 2,076 lives in Iran, 28 in the Gulf states, 26 in Israel, and 13 members of the US military. The joint US-Israeli offensive began on February 28. Al Jazeera ↗

UN Secretary-General António Guterres declared that "no military objective justifies mass destruction." Pope Leo XIV called Trump's threats "unacceptable." France warned against a "vicious cycle" of retaliatory strikes, and Amnesty International stated that Trump's threats "may constitute genocide." NBC News ↗

Iran, however, presents the developments in a fundamentally different way. According to Iranian state television PressTV, the Supreme National Security Council declared a "historic and crushing defeat" of the United States and Israel after roughly forty days of conflict. According to Tehran, Washington was "forced to accept" Iran's proposal. Both sides are thus presenting the outcome as their own victory — even though it is only a temporary ceasefire. PressTV (Iranian state media) ↗

Even after the ceasefire was announced, reports emerged of isolated incidents. This is not a peace agreement — it is a time-limited ceasefire with specific conditions, compliance with which will depend on both sides. Iran's ten-point plan contains demands — including the withdrawal of American troops and compensation — that Washington has so far rejected. The next two weeks and Friday's talks in Islamabad will show whether diplomacy can turn a fragile silencing of guns into a more lasting solution.

For now, though, the war has not ended — it has only paused.