Update · Monday, June 8, morning: Netanyahu did not heed Trump. Overnight into Monday, the Israeli air force struck targets in central and western Iran — Iranian state media reported explosions in Tehran, Isfahan, Karaj, and Tabriz, and the Revolutionary Guards confirmed that Israel used air-launched ballistic missiles. Iran subsequently closed the airspace around Tehran's Imam Khomeini Airport, and in the morning Israeli fighter jets struck the Karun petrochemical complex in the city of Mahshahr in the southwest of the country. The conflict began to spread: Saudi Arabia sounded missile sirens near the Prince Sultan base housing American troops, and Israel reported intercepting a missile fired from Yemen. According to Germany's Spiegel, Trump is "furious," insists on an immediate return to negotiations, and refuses to unfreeze frozen Iranian assets until there is a ceasefire. Brent crude oil jumped $3.50 to $96.59 a barrel, and Asian markets fell sharply. The Guardian ↗
What happened
Israel struck Dahiyeh, a Hezbollah stronghold in southern Beirut, according to Israeli sources without notifying the disapproving Trump administration in advance. The attack in the densely populated neighborhood killed at least two people and wounded eleven. Iran's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) subsequently announced they had fired ballistic missiles at the Israeli Ramat David air base — calling it a "warning." The Israeli military claims it intercepted all the projectiles and reported no casualties or damage. Al Jazeera ↗This was the first Iranian missile barrage against Israel in two months, since the April ceasefire. Israeli officials were still talking about a "forceful response" on Sunday. That's when Trump intervened. The Times of Israel ↗
Who holds whom
The president didn't call Netanyahu first — he first announced it to his favorite Israeli journalist, Barak Ravid of Channel 12. "Everyone had their turn. Israel had its strike and Iran had its strike. We don't need another one," Trump declared. According to Ravid, one senior American official added regarding a potential new escalation: "We're not in this." Al Jazeera ↗Trump's priorities diverged from Israel's. The president wants to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, calm the energy chaos, and close a deal with Tehran that he says could be signed "Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday." In an interview with the Financial Times, he was unambiguous about who has the final word over Netanyahu: "He won't have a choice. I decide. I decide everything." According to the Times of Israel, just last week he described the prime minister as "completely crazy." The Times of Israel ↗
Netanyahu's tight bind
Trump's order leaves the prime minister an almost binary choice. He can obey — and in doing so, according to Israeli commentators, weaken Israel's own deterrent power in the face of a triumphant Tehran and undermine the image of Israeli independence. Or he can openly defy the president and plunge into an escalating war with Iran, in which Israel could find itself alone. Initial reports suggested that Netanyahu tried in vain to talk Trump out of his opposition, and that the US believes he will not order retaliation in the near term. The Times of Israel ↗Former Israeli ambassador to the US Michael Oren speculated that the prime minister may have asked Trump for at least consent to a strike "under the radar," which Israel would not claim, or for some form of compensation for restraint — such as American B-2 bombers, the only aircraft capable of striking Iran's underground nuclear facilities.
Indicators, not proof
The rift between the allies is not new, but it has rarely been this public. The fact remains that after a hundred days of war, not a single declared objective has been achieved — Iran's nuclear program continues to run, and according to leaked drafts of the memorandum Trump is working on, there is no guarantee that a deal will stop it. The question is whether Tehran will let itself be carried away by a sense of superiority to the point of pushing Trump into exactly what he forbade Israel from doing.A note on perspective is warranted. The Times of Israel, the source of most of this framing, is an Israeli outlet, and the whole episode reads as a betrayal of an ally and a loss of Israeli deterrence. The Iranian and Arab optics are the opposite: both the IRGC and an adviser to the Supreme Leader present the missile barrage as a successful "warning" that restored deterrence without a return to full-scale war. The truth about who emerged stronger from this night will only become clear based on what Netanyahu does in the coming days.
Also read: House rebukes Trump over Iran war 215:208. British press reads a revolt
What hotinfo is watching
- After Israel's retaliation, the regional war either widened (Lebanon, Yemen, the Arab states) or stayed within the bounds of reprisal strikes
- It is known whether the deal with Iran genuinely limited the nuclear programme, or merely reopened Hormuz and froze the status quo
- Whether the deal with Iran that Trump announced (Monday to Wednesday) was signed→ Irán súhlasil s prímerím voči Izraelu po uvoľnení 3 miliárd dolárovDohoda v Trumpovom okne (po-st) nepodpísaná; namiesto toho Irán súhlasil s prímerím po uvoľnení 3 mld USD (TASR 9.6.). Vance: "very close to peace deal" (čl. 1029152). Eskalácia medzitým: zostrel Apache + US odvetné údery.
