A Funeral in Paris
Corporal Anicet Girardin died on Wednesday morning, April 22, in Paris from wounds he sustained on Saturday, April 18, during an attack on a UNIFIL patrol in southern Lebanon. French forces had previously flown him home in serious condition. The first French soldier to die on the spot in the attack was Warrant Officer Florian Montorio, struck by direct small-arms fire as the patrol was opening a route to an isolated mission post. The National ↗ Euronews ↗In a public statement, Macron said that "everything indicates that Hezbollah bears responsibility for this attack." The UN condemned the attack. The French president spoke by phone with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, calling the attack "unacceptable." France 24 ↗
Hezbollah has not publicly acknowledged responsibility.
Al-Tiri: A Journalist Under the Rubble
On that same Wednesday, as Macron was speaking in Paris, Israel struck a car in the southern Lebanese village of al-Tiri. The Israeli military stated that the target was two vehicles leaving a structure used by Hezbollah, and that it had identified an "imminent threat" in the area. The first strike killed two people. Al Jazeera ↗Two reporters were nearby at the time: Amal Khalil of the Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar and photographer Zeinab Farajová [Zeinab Faraj]. After the first strike, they fled into a nearby house. A second Israeli strike hit the building. Rescuers pulled Khalil's body from the rubble several hours later, dead. Faraj was taken to hospital, where she underwent surgery. CPJ ↗ Washington Post ↗
Lebanese Civil Defense stated that a third Israeli strike hit the road connecting al-Tiri to the town of Haddatha, which, in its assessment, blocked ambulance access to the journalists. The Israeli military acknowledged the strikes but denied deliberately obstructing rescue services. According to wire reports, the death toll from the April 22 Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon reached at least five. Al Jazeera ↗
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam accused Israel of "war crimes." Khalil had covered the conflict since it began in October 2023. The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) documented her death and called for an independent investigation into the circumstances of the attack. CPJ ↗ CNN ↗
Two Positions That Are Hard to Reconcile
While the rubble was being cleared in al-Tiri, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar declared ahead of Thursday's talks that there are "no serious disagreements" between Israel and Lebanon — despite ongoing disputes over the border and the presence of armed groups. He then had a message for the Lebanese government: "Let us work together against the terrorist state that Hezbollah has built on your territory. You need this cooperation more than we do." He described Lebanon as a "failed state." Times of Israel ↗The Lebanese side, however, is coming to Washington with a different agenda. Salam wants a one-month extension of the ten-day ceasefire and an end to the destruction of southern Lebanese towns. Following Monday's meeting with Macron in Paris, both men called on Israel to "respect the territorial integrity" of Lebanon and abandon its "territorial ambitions." Washington Times ↗ Al-Monitor ↗
Israel has long demanded the disarmament of Hezbollah and its withdrawal from the border area under UN Security Council Resolution 1701 of 2006. Lebanon cannot fulfill this demand without risking internal conflict and without forces to replace Hezbollah in the southern zone. Meanwhile, both sides have formally observed the ceasefire since April 16.
The US: Mediator and Evacuation
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to take part in Thursday's round on behalf of the American side. Lebanon is represented by Ambassador to Washington Nada Moawad, Israel by Ambassador Yechiel Leiter. At the same time, the US State Department reiterated its recommendation that US citizens in southern Lebanon, the border area with Syria, refugee camps, and the southern suburbs of Beirut leave the area immediately. A Level 4 travel advisory ("Do Not Travel") has been in effect since February; commercial flights from Beirut airport are operated by Middle East Airlines. U.S. Embassy Beirut ↗Hezbollah's response has so far been limited: on Tuesday evening, in the first shot fired since the start of the ceasefire, it fired a barrage of rockets and drones at northern Israel; on Wednesday, according to wire reports, it targeted a drone at Israeli forces in the border zone. Times of Israel ↗
This Week's Deadline
According to diplomatic sources, the ten-day ceasefire expires at the end of the week. By then, negotiators must resolve at least two issues: whether to agree on a one-month extension along the lines of the Lebanese proposal, and whether they can find wording on Hezbollah's future that is strong enough for Jerusalem and realistic enough for Beirut.Three scenarios that analysts consider possible:
Extension. The most optimistic variant — Rubio pushes through a one-month suspension of hostilities, Israel accepts it in exchange for language on Hezbollah, and diplomacy buys more time.
Resumption of airstrikes. The pessimistic variant — once the agreement expires, Israel resumes full-scale air operations against Beirut and southern Lebanon. Hezbollah responds with retaliatory rockets. The US faces a choice of whether to veto another anti-Israel resolution at the UN Security Council again.
Gray zone. Continuity of the current state — the ceasefire is extended by a few weeks through a tacit understanding with no formal text, attacks continue daily, casualties on both sides mount, and the diplomatic channel remains open. Neither normalization nor full-scale war materializes.
What to Watch
- The outcome of the Washington talks (evening CET)
- Hezbollah's response — rocket or drone strikes
- Signals from Paris — whether Macron pushes for a change in the French contingent's mandate or threatens withdrawal
- The positions of Russia and Iran at the UN Security Council following the al-Tiri incident
