Key actors — tap for context
Volodymyr Zelenskyj
President of Ukraine
Why here: Framed the strike with the words "if Ukraine will burn, Moscow will burn too" and stated it is time to end the war
More info →
Vladimir Putin
President of Russia
Why here: On the day of the attack, he appeared outside Moscow and St. Petersburg for the first time in months — in Kazan
More info →
Sergey Sobyanin
Mayor of Moscow
Why here: Reported that the defense repels "an extensive attack"; admitted that part of the drones struck the refinery
More info →
Gazprom Neft
Oil arm of the Gazprom concern, operator of the Moscow refinery in Kapotnya
Why here: Its facility, which covers approximately one-third of the capital's fuel, was engulfed in fire again
More info →Kapotnya
Industrial district on the southeastern edge of Moscow with a large refinery
Why here: Target of Thursday's strike, approximately 15 km from the city center
🔴 Latest Developments (July 8-16)
- Russian oil is piling up at sea — 135 million barrels undelivered. Strikes on refineries force Moscow to export crude oil it can no longer process at home, but buyers are not taking it fast enough. The volume of exported crude oil according to Bloomberg remained nearly unchanged (4.21 million barrels per day), but its value collapsed — from a peak of $2.5 billion per week to approximately $1.7 billion. Euromaidan Press / Bloomberg ↗
- Oil product exports by sea fell to half compared to June. This involves refined gasoline and diesel, precisely what the damaged refineries cannot produce fast enough. HN ↗
- Crisis spilled over into NATO — Russian fishermen are draining fuel in Norway. Last week they emptied storage tanks in the ports of Båtsfjord and Kirkenes in the Finnmark region, the only two where Russian ships may enter after sanctions. Finnmark police, according to its chief Tarjei Sirma-Tellefsena, warn that if the trend escalates, it could weaken local readiness. FORUM 24 / iFinnmark ↗
- Fuel tourism has started, Russians smuggle gasoline from Kazakhstan. Russia is simultaneously officially importing fuel from Kazakhstan and from the Belarusian refineries Mozyr and Novopolotsk, but their capacity does not cover the gap. SME ↗
- Violence increases in gas lines — shots fired in Chelyabinsk. According to iDNES, drivers are fighting at gas stations, incidents reported in several Russian cities. iDNES ↗
- Fuel crisis cuts war financing. Budget revenues are falling, but the state plans to continue spending. The share of oil and gas revenues in the Russian budget is expected to fall to 22 percent this year, while in 2022 it was 42 percent. FORUM 24 ↗
- Moscow lowered its economic growth forecast for 2026 from 1.3 to 0.4 percent. Two-thirds of Russia's 83 regions already have some form of fuel rationing and gasoline production is about a quarter lower than last June, according to analysts. The Moscow Times ↗RFE/RL ↗
- Ukraine hit the Afip refinery in Krasnodar Krai again during the night of July 14 — several explosions were heard on the facility grounds according to Russian media and OSINT channels, and a fire broke out. The refinery, important for Russian fuel infrastructure, has been repeatedly targeted by strikes. Censor.NET ↗
- Bloomberg: Russian oil processing fell to a 21-year low — in July 2026 to 3.91 million barrels per day, the lowest since March 2005 and more than 1.4 million barrels less than a year ago. The reason is Ukrainian strikes on refineries. According to the Financial Times, Russia may have lost 20-40 percent of capacity. Ziarul de Gardă / Bloomberg ↗
- Ukrainian drones hit the Mikhaylovskaya oil storage facility in Stavropol Krai, where a large fire broke out, and struck the Moscow region — Russian authorities report three dead (not independently confirmed). Kyiv Independent ↗Ukrajinska Pravda ↗Berlingske ↗
- Satellite images confirmed the destruction of three tanks at the Tver oil storage facility following another Ukrainian strike, according to media reports. Censor.NET ↗
- Russian fuel crisis is spilling into food prices — according to Bulgarian newspaper Dnevnik, fuel price increases following Ukrainian strikes are driving up food prices and government measures are not working. Dnevnik ↗
- Russia suspended ship traffic through the Don-Azov Canal after a drone attack on four vessels in the Taganrog Bay, including a tanker with methanol. Interfax Ukraine ↗Censor.NET ↗Censor.NET ↗
- Zelenskyy established a special command for deep strikes against Russia, which according to Kyiv is to intensify Ukrainian attacks into Russian territory. 444 ↗Adevărul ↗
- Ukraine hit another of Russia's largest refineries in southern Russia and the port of Taganrog. According to Hungarian media, fuel supply is already disrupted for dozens of millions of people in Russia due to Ukrainian strikes. Telex ↗HVG ↗Censor.NET ↗
- Ukraine attacked 12 Russian tankers in the Azov Sea and simultaneously struck oil storage facilities deep in Russia's interior, far from the front line. Aftenposten ↗Aftenposten ↗
- The SBU hit an oil pumping station in Bashkortostan, 1,500 km from the Ukrainian border. It is a key node of the Transneft-Urals system through which oil flows from oil fields to western Russia — the deepest strike of the war into Russian territory. Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukrainian strikes also hit Saratov Region and Tatarstan. Interfax Ukraine ↗Ukrajinska Pravda ↗
- In Tatarstan, 1,400 km from the front, the TANECO Nizhnekamsk refineries were hit (processed 17 million tons of oil in 2024, one of Russia's most modern) and TAIF-NK (6.6 million tons of oil annually). "Russians must feel that their state is fighting this war," Zelenskyy stated. HotNews ↗
- Russian fuel crisis deepens — empty pumps and gas lines. The British Daily Mail described Russia as a country with empty gas stations, Finnish Yle reports that gas lines divided the country — the elite reportedly gets to the pump directly through a code word. Daily Mail ↗Yle ↗
- The Kremlin admitted that this is a "real war". Spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated according to Polish and Italian media that due to Western involvement, Russia's "special military operation" has turned into a real war. Wirtualna Polska ↗AGI ↗
- Peskov announced a plan for a "buffer zone" along the border with Ukraine. Slobodenpečat ↗
- Russia is attacking Naftogaz production facilities for the second day. Russian forces are shelling Ukrainian Naftogaz gas production facilities in three regions for the second day in a row, extensive fires have broken out — the energy war is running in both directions. Interfax Ukraine ↗
- Fuel war reached the St. Petersburg region. On the night of July 4, Ukrainian drones hit an oil terminal and port in Leningrad Region — one of the deepest strikes into Russian territory — and a ferry terminal and airfield burned on occupied Crimea. Ukrajinska Pravda ↗Kyiv Independent ↗
- Putin ordered continued massive strikes and threatened to expand the "security zone". Censor.NET ↗
- Russian retaliation continues. That same night Russia sent two missiles and 86 drones against Ukraine, air defense shot down 69, hits reported at more than 20 locations. Ukrajinska Pravda ↗
- Putin publicly acknowledged fuel shortage in Russia for the first time. Following Ukrainian strikes on refineries, the Kremlin introduced a ban on gasoline exports, diesel is next. Ukrajinska Pravda ↗Kyiv Independent ↗
- Due to fuel shortage, Putin called a crisis meeting. Tagesspiegel ↗
- Zelenskyy approved a 40-day operation against Russia, which according to Kyiv is to bring the end of the war closer. Rzeczpospolita ↗
- Russia reports downing 660 drones overnight, Ukraine launched a new campaign of strikes deep into Russian territory according to media. Onet ↗RTP ↗
- Drones hit the Azot chemical plant, Moscow, and occupied Crimea. Ukrajinska Pravda ↗
- Russia is losing control of logistics on Crimea. Record-long lines of cars formed near the Kerch Bridge during a mass exodus of residents. Censor.NET ↗Censor.NET ↗
- Over 150 gas stations burned in Ukraine in the past two months — the fuel war is spilling over into Russian rear areas. Interfax Ukraine ↗
What Happened
The target was the Moscow oil refinery of the Gazprom Neft concern in Kapotnya, approximately 15 kilometers southeast of the city center, which covers roughly a third of the metropolis's fuel needs. Footage showed massive columns of smoke and several large fires; the facility was hit on Tuesday, June 16, and was supposed to suspend operations following that strike. Moscow Times ↗ NBC News ↗Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin stated that the defense was repelling an "extensive attack" and acknowledged that several drones reached the refinery. Several Moscow airports temporarily limited operations. BBC ↗
The Largest Strike on the Metropolis in the War
Bloomberg and the exiled Moscow Times described the night and morning as a record-breaking, largest Ukrainian attack on Moscow since the start of the full-scale invasion. Russian air defense claimed to have shot down nearly 200 drones over the Moscow region — the most it has ever reported in a single attack — and 555 aircraft over several Russian regions and occupied Crimea; Ukraine reportedly sent hundreds of drones to more than a dozen Russian regions. Bloomberg ↗ These figures come from Russian authorities and are not independently verified.The attack came during the week of the G7 summit and raised questions in Russia about whether the Kremlin would change tactics. Newsweek ↗ BBC ↗ President Vladimir Putin on that day, according to Slovak ta3, appeared outside Moscow and St. Petersburg for the first time in months — surrounded by security, he came out among people in Kazan. A direct connection to the attack has not been confirmed. ta3 ↗
"Moscow Will Burn Too"
Zelenskyy chose sharp phrasing. He conveyed that "if Ukraine burns, Moscow will burn too," and reiterated that it is "time to end the war." iDNES ↗ Tagesspiegel ↗ German Tagesspiegel made that sentence into a headline and marked the night as one of the harshest drone attacks since the beginning of the war — rhetoric showing that Kyiv is increasingly openly bringing the war onto Russian territory.Strikes on refineries are not random, however. Ukraine frames them as pressure on Russia's war economy, and agency and market reports indicate crude processing outages and local fuel restrictions.
Moscow threatens retaliation, London sends drones. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in response to the attack, declared that "words are no longer enough" and Russia will attack Ukraine "extensively and regularly" — thus an announced retaliation, not confirmed actions. Pravda ↗ iROZHLAS ↗ Britain meanwhile announced it will provide Ukraine with 150,000 drones along with missiles and radars. teraz.sk ↗ The Moscow exchange experienced, according to Polish Onet, one of the worst days in months, and from the damaged refinery, an "oil rain" descended over part of the city. Onet ↗ Novinky ↗
Kremlin escalates retaliation threat. A day after the attack, Russian officials hardened their rhetoric: Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed that the order for "massive group strikes" against Ukraine came directly from Vladimir Putin, and State Duma chairman Vyacheslav Volodin warned that Russia's counteraction would mean "harder strikes with stronger weapons." These remain announced retaliations, not confirmed actions. (Cumhuriyet ↗, The Mirror ↗)\n\nRead also: Drones hit Moscow refinery for the second time in three days. How they penetrate air defense that has Pantsirs even on rooftops
Limits of This Perspective
The counts of shot-down drones (nearly 200 over Moscow, 555 over Russia) and claims about damage come from Russian authorities and Mayor Sobyanin and are not independently verified; likewise, the exact extent of refinery damage is still unknown. The designation "largest attack in the war" stands on assessments by Western media (BBC, Bloomberg, Moscow Times). And although some headlines write of flames "near the Kremlin," Kapotnya is an industrial periphery and a repeated target, not the city center. We mention Putin's trip to Kazan as a time coincidence — no source claims he left Moscow because of the attack.What hotinfo is Monitoring
- Whether the processing outage in Kapotnya is confirmed and the impact on fuel supply to the Moscow region.
- Whether Moscow will change its defense or retaliation tactics after a series of strikes.
- The reaction of G7 leaders and the West to the escalation of both rhetoric and strikes.
- The scope of Russian retaliation against Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
