"Iran is running out of time": Trump's weekend
On Sunday evening, May 17, after a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump wrote on Truth Social: "Iran is running out of time and should hurry up, or there will be nothing left. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE." According to Axios, on Tuesday, May 19, he convened his security team in the Situation Room — Iran risks being "hit far harder than before" if it does not adjust its negotiating position. Outside Washington, negotiations are being mediated by two non-NATO states: Pakistan as the official mediator (its interior minister visited Tehran over the weekend) and Qatar, whose Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani spoke on Sunday with both his Pakistani counterpart and Iran's foreign minister. At Monday's cabinet meeting in Jerusalem, Netanyahu announced he would speak with Trump that same day: "Our eyes are open regarding Iran." Euronews ↗ Axios ↗Also read: Trump threatens Iran with destruction, negotiations stall
Hezbollah fires on Galilee all day, five dead in Tyre district
The following timeline is based exclusively on statements from the Israeli army (IDF), continuously recorded by the Times of Israel. At 1:23 a.m., the IDF intercepted rockets fired by Hezbollah at Israeli forces in southern Lebanon. In the afternoon, at 3:03 p.m., the army announced that a roadside bomb had wounded four Israeli soldiers overnight, one seriously — the army did not state whether the device was planted by Hezbollah before or during the ceasefire. At 3:51 p.m., additional rockets were intercepted over the forces; at 4:30 p.m., a drone triggered sirens in the Western Galilee. The heaviest salvo came at 6:37 p.m.: rockets and mortars landed near soldiers, explosive drones headed toward their positions, with no injuries reported by the IDF. Another drone was intercepted at 9:35 p.m. Times of Israel liveblog (Emanuel Fabian) ↗Israeli retaliation struck villages in the Tyre district in the south of the country — agencies captured images of smoke rising over the Lebanese coastline. Lebanon's Ministry of Health reports five dead, including two children. Citing Beirut sources, the Czech dailies Lidovky and Seznam Zprávy report that Israel attacked despite the April 16 ceasefire, which the United States had extended two days earlier. The public broadcaster Deutschlandfunk speaks of "mutual attacks by Israel and Hezbollah" despite the formally valid ceasefire. Seznam Zprávy (citing the Lebanese Ministry of Health) ↗ Deutschlandfunk ↗
45 days under fire
On May 15, US State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott announced that the April 16 ceasefire is being extended by 45 days — it was originally set to expire on Sunday, May 17, and by this method of counting the end of the new framework falls around the turn of June 30 to July 1, 2026. "The cessation of hostilities of April 16 will be extended by 45 days to allow further progress," reads the State Department's wording, as reported by Reuters and Germany's Tagesspiegel. The military track of negotiations is set to continue at the Pentagon on May 29, with the political track at the US State Department on June 2 and 3. Beirut is demanding a definitive end to hostilities, while Israel is demanding the disarmament of Hezbollah — which, however, is not at the table; negotiations are being conducted by the Lebanese government of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun. Sunday's Israeli army data could strengthen Israel's argument to Washington to increase pressure for the disarmament of the Shiite militia. Investing.com (Reuters) ↗ Tagesspiegel ↗Also read: A month after the Lebanon ceasefire: 22 dead and settler calls for annexation up to the Litani River
Saudi "Helsinki pact": a parallel track outside Trump's framework
Outside the American 14-point plan, a second diplomatic track is taking shape. According to a Financial Times finding of May 14, Saudi Arabia is proposing a regional non-aggression pact — Riyadh is explicitly drawing inspiration for its framing from the Helsinki Accords of the 1970s, which laid the foundation for détente between the USSR and the West. The pact should include "mutual recognition of borders, respect for human rights, and cooperation in economic, scientific, and humanitarian areas," reports Middle East Eye. The intended recipients: Iran and the Gulf states (GCC — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman) plus European capitals. Iran's condition is twofold — closure of American bases in the region and clarification of the regime governing the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran controls via the new Persian Gulf Strait Authority. Support from the US and Israel is not clear based on available reporting. Middle East Eye (citing FT) ↗On Sunday evening, Saudi Arabia, according to its own Ministry of Defense, intercepted three drones entering from Iraqi airspace — spokesperson Turki Al-Maliki promised "necessary operational measures." The attack came a day after the Saudi Foreign Ministry condemned a drone strike on the Barakah nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates. Arab News (Reuters) ↗
"Five conditions" under Iran's seal
Iranian media over the weekend published an outline of the latest American proposal, calling it a "diktat without concessions." According to the semi-official Iranian agency Fars, picked up by Turkey's Anadolu, the US is demanding five specific points: Iran should keep only one nuclear facility operational, transfer around 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium to the US, receive no reparations, not have even 25 percent of its frozen assets in American banks released, and tie the cessation of hostilities on all fronts to the outcome of negotiations. HotInfo does not present this as a confirmed American proposal — independent Western confirmation of the specific five-point formulation is still lacking. Anadolu Agency (citing Fars) ↗Of what the White House itself is publicly saying, only Trump's weekend stance, reported via the Times of Israel, is verifiable: he would agree to a 20-year suspension of uranium enrichment if Tehran gave a "genuine" guarantee. Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Ali Khamenei and the new Iranian supreme leader appointed on March 8 after his father's death in late February, has not appeared publicly since taking office — he communicates through advisers such as Mohammad Mokhber, who on May 8 compared control over Hormuz to holding an atomic bomb, in remarks to the Mehr news agency. Times of Israel ↗
Also read: Iran's response to the 14-point plan: PGSA collects fees, Mokhber compares Hormuz to an atomic bomb
What hotinfo is watching
- The Pentagon on May 29 — the military track of the talks under the 45-day extension of the truce
- The US State Department on June 2–3 — the political track of the talks (Salam, Aoun, the Israeli delegation)
- The Saudi Helsinki pact — when Riyadh publishes the written text, and support from Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE
- The Situation Room on Tuesday May 19 — who is in the room (Vance, Rubio, Witkoff, Ratcliffe) and the output: an ultimatum, a military option or the status quoSituation Room 19.5. pondelok večer PREBEHOL. Tím: VP Vance, Sec State Rubio, envoy Witkoff, Sec Def Hegseth (nový), Joint Chiefs Caine, CIA Ratcliffe. Výstup: Trump POZASTAVIL útoky (kvôli žiadosti Gulf allies), ultimátum „2-3 dni, možno piatok/sobota či začiatok nasledujúceho týždňa". Iran predložil nový návrh. Plány proti Iránu zostávajú dostupné. (Axios/CNN 19.5.)
- Hezbollah–IDF dynamics through May 22 — whether the repeated strikes of May 17 continue daily or were a one-off salvo→ Izraelská armáda varovala ľudí v južnom Libanone, plánuje útoky na HizballáhHizballáh-IDF v eskalácii. 17.5.: 5 mŕtvych v južnom Libanone (Tyre okres) vrátane 2 detí. 18.5.: 7 mŕtvych v izraelských úderoch + Hizballáh FPV drony na Železnú kupolu (912769). 19.5. IDF varovala obyvateľov pred plánovanými útokmi na Hizballáh (918317). Bilancia: 3000+ mŕtvych od marca (914037, 913985). 19 mŕtvych v stredu (920989). 100+ zdravotníkov mŕtvych (918601). Prímerie de facto padlo —…
- A cross-check of the American five-point letter via Reuters, AP and AFP — confirming or refuting the Iranian Fars wordingPäťbodový list USA — cross-check Reuters/AP/AFP nepotvrdil priamu citáciu iránskej Fars formulácie. Trump publikuje konkrétne podmienky verejne (ultimátum 2-3 dni, žiadne jadrové zbrane, žiadne pokračovanie obohacovania, Hormuz otvorený). Fars/Mehr zobrali túto verejnú rétoriku a štruktúrovali ju do „päťbodového" naratívu, ale westerné agentúry hovoria len o štyroch konkrétnych podmienkach + Iran…
- A public appearance by Mojtaba Khamenei — the new supreme leader breaking his silenceMojtaba Khamenei od nástupu 8.3.2026 NEMÁ žiadne verejné vystúpenie — žiadne live video, žiadny audio, len písomné správy čítané hlásateľmi v štátnej TV. Cca 2.5 mesiaca v ústraní. Polymarket beží stávky na jeho prvý verejný výstup. Špekulácie o zdraví, IRGC dominancii, security protokoloch. (Iran International, Al Jazeera 12.3., CNN 12.3.)
- The Iraqi investigation into the May 17 drones over Saudi Arabia — naming the group (Kataib Hezbollah or another PMF unit)Iracké MZV začalo verifikáciu 17.5. drony nad Saudi (3 zostrelené, z iráckeho vzdušného priestoru). Podozrenie: Kataib Hezbollah + Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq (PMF). Kataib Hezbollah POPREL napojenie na al-Saadiho — DOJ ho obvinilo z 6 počtov terorizmu. WSJ: až polovica z 1000+ útokov na Saudi je z Iraku. (JPost 17.5., Times of Israel, Soufan Center 19.5.)
