Trump says the deal with Iran will be signed today, Hormuz will open right after. Tehran is stalling on timing

Donald Trump claims the framework agreement to end the war with Iran should be signed today — on the very day of his 80th birthday — and that the Strait of Hormuz will "open to everyone" immediately after signing. Tehran sees it differently: Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmáíl Baghaí warned on Saturday that no signing will take place on Sunday — though it "cannot be ruled out in the coming days." And while Washington and Islamabad are preparing an electronic signature, unverified videos reportedly showed opponents of the deal protesting in front of the ministry building in Tehran. CNBC ↗ RTÉ ↗

What the deal is supposed to contain

According to the draft memorandum described by Reuters sources, the core of the deal is a trade-off: Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz — the artery through which roughly 20 percent of the world's seaborne oil shipments passed before the war — and the US will lift the naval blockade in return. Demining the strait is meant to be a later phase, one that, according to a US official, could involve G7 countries. RTÉ ↗

Iran's nuclear program — the official reason the US entered the war — is only to be negotiated during a 60-day window after signing. A US official claims the deal will ultimately lead to the dismantling of the program and the destruction and removal of Iran's stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. For now, though, this is only the American interpretation of the goal of talks that have yet to even begin — the fate of Iran's uranium is in fact one of the most contentious points. Trump, in his own style, described it as "nuclear dust buried deep under massive granite mountains" that Americans will "come get once everything calms down." CNBC ↗

Money remains a point of contention. The draft envisions Washington beginning to unfreeze billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets and lifting sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Trump, however, declared on Saturday that "no money will change hands" — which contradicts Iran's interpretation, under which the release of assets is an integral part of the deal. Tehran also insists it will charge fees for passage through Hormuz and that foreign military bases in the region must be shut down. RTÉ ↗

Why Tehran is stalling

The gap between Trump's "today" and Iran's "not yet" is more than just a matter of protocol. According to experts, the war that the US and Israel launched on February 28 has paradoxically strengthened the hardline core of the Revolutionary Guards — who have no reason to rush into a deal that part of the Iranian establishment views as a retreat. RTÉ ↗

The resistance also showed up in the streets. Videos from Tehran, which Reuters could not independently verify, showed opponents of the deal in front of the Foreign Ministry building chanting against Minister Abbás Aráqčí: "Aráqčí, shame on you, leave America alone!" Disapproval of the framework deal was also voiced loudly at pro-government rallies. RTÉ ↗

The consolidation of power after Chameneí's death is also a factor in the background. Supreme Leader Alí Chameneí did not survive the war; according to Iranian state media, his funeral is to begin on July 4 and he is to be buried on July 9 in his native Mashhad. Tehran is preparing the six-day mourning ceremonies as a demonstration of "victory" — rhetoric that sits uneasily alongside signing a concessionary deal. The Independent ↗

Israel as the wild card

The biggest unknown remains Israel, which keeps repeating that it is not a party to the US-Iran deal. According to the Israeli military, it struck more than 70 targets in Lebanon against Iran's ally Hezbollah in just the past 24 hours. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanjahu has clashed with Trump precisely over whether Israel should ease up in Lebanon so that Washington can even conclude the deal with Tehran. RTÉ ↗

Iranian Minister Aráqčí acknowledged on Friday that changes to the deal are still possible, but also stated that the preliminary agreement proves his country emerged from the conflict stronger — a message aimed at the domestic audience, not Washington. RTÉ ↗

Stagecraft versus reality

Trump's Saturday message ended with a veiled threat: if things "don't go smoothly," the US has a "final alternative it hopefully will never have to use" ready. A senior administration official also admitted on Friday that they were not "one hundred percent" certain the deal the parties had agreed on would actually be signed. The birthday timing may therefore be more Trump stagecraft than an accurate reflection of where things actually stand. CNBC ↗

What hotinfo is following

• Whether the framework deal is signed today, "in the coming days," or at all.
• Hormuz: the actual reopening of the strait and its impact on oil prices.
• The dispute over frozen assets — Trump's "no money" versus Iran's "integral part."
• Israel: whether Netanjahu scales back strikes in Lebanon or sidesteps the deal with his own escalation.
• The 60-day nuclear talks and the fate of Iran's highly enriched uranium.
• The succession after Chameneí and the Revolutionary Guards' further consolidation of power.