Key actors — tap for context
Tatneft
Russian oil company headquartered in Tatarstan, operates the TANECO refinery
Why here: its gas stations introduced the strictest ration — 20 liters of gasoline per car
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Rosneft
Russia's largest oil company, state-controlled
Why here: limited sales at its stations to 90 liters per vehicle
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Lukoil
Russia's second-largest oil company, private
Why here: limit of 100 liters of fuel per receipt
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Alexandr Novak
Russian deputy prime minister responsible for energy
Why here: publicly acknowledged a decline in oil production for the first time
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Tatarstan
Russian republic on the Volga, over a thousand kilometers from the front
Why here: target of the deepest strike on the TANECO refinery
More info →Kpler
Belgian commodity data firm
Why here: quantified Russia's idled refining capacity
What exiled journalists are documenting
Exiled Russian outlets — The Moscow Times and Novaya Gazeta Europe — describe how the restrictions have spread to dozens of gas stations in Moscow, the surrounding region, and St. Petersburg. Novaya Gazeta Europe ↗ According to RBC-Ukraine, Tatneft has the strictest limits: 20 liters of gasoline and 40 liters of diesel per customer. Rosneft allowed 90 liters per vehicle, Lukoil 100 liters per purchase. RBC-Ukraine ↗The General Fueller chain introduced a 20-liter cap at 23 stations in Moscow, Tver and Yaroslavl, while the Moscow retailer ORTK restricted sales "until further notice." "We're not the only ones doing this," its spokesperson admitted. Restrictions also appeared in Karelia, while prices spiked in the Kaliningrad region. The Moscow Times ↗
Why now: deeper strikes and more precise targeting
Until now, we had mostly observed the fuel crisis in occupied Crimea, which was supplied by a single route turned into a "death zone." The new wave is different — Ukraine is now striking refineries deep in Russia's interior. According to Ukrainian sources, the day before the latest restrictions, drones struck Tatneft's large TANECO refinery in Tatarstan and the TAIF-NK plant in Nizhnekamsk, more than a thousand kilometers from the border. RBC-Ukraine ↗Read also: Drone war: the main road to Crimea has turned into a "death zone," gasoline is rationed
According to the monitoring group ACLED, Ukraine carried out 658 strikes last year on targets at least 100 kilometers beyond its borders — almost twice as many as in the previous three years combined — and this year is on pace for more than 800. Kpler analyst Nikhil Dubey says the key factor isn't just the number of strikes, but more precise targeting of specific refinery components: hydrocrackers — secondary units that produce diesel and other fuels. Once hit, they take weeks to months to repair, and Western sanctions on spare parts are extending the recovery time even further. According to Kpler data, in May the shut-down secondary processing capacity was 1.2 to 1.3 million barrels per day higher than a year earlier. RFE/RL ↗
Denial versus admission
The biggest shift compared to the past is in Moscow's tone. Leningrad Region Governor Alexander Drozdenko claims that "deliveries are proceeding as planned and there are no shortages," dismissing drivers' complaints as something that doesn't reflect "the overall situation." St. Petersburg's industrial committee assured that "there are currently no conditions indicating a fuel shortage," justifying the limits as an effort to "prevent artificial panic." OilPrice ↗However, on June 9, Russia's Ministry of Energy admitted for the first time that Ukrainian attacks were behind the outages: sector companies, it said, "faced an increase in hostile air attacks, leading to temporary complications in supplies." At the same time, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak publicly acknowledged a decline in oil production for the first time. Gasoline prices have risen 4.8 percent since January, and the government extended the gasoline export ban until the end of July. The Moscow Times ↗
Limitations of this picture
The picture rests largely on exiled Russian and Ukrainian sources, which have an interest in portraying the war as a burden on Russia's rear. Some of the figures come from monitoring groups and commodity analysts, not from Russian authorities, who keep data on strikes secret. Moreover, the "20 liters per customer" cap doesn't mean empty pumps everywhere — it's a measure against hoarding, and the military typically secures priority when fuel is allocated, so shortages hit civilians first, not front-line units. The real test will be summer, when fuel demand peaks.What hotinfo is watching
- Whether rationing stays at "20 liters per customer" or spreads to other regions and chains.
- How long repairs to the damaged hydrocrackers will take, and whether sanctions on components slow them down further.
- Whether the Kremlin holds the line of "no crisis" or moves to official regulatory measures.
- The impact on the Russian budget: oil exports are declining in June, and the gasoline export ban remains in effect until July 31.
- Russian retaliation — intensified strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in response to the refinery campaign.
