Lithuania deals with another stray drone carrying explosives. In Latvia, similar incidents already brought down the government

In a field near the village of Samanė in northern Lithuania, a local resident mowing grass on Sunday evening noticed the wreckage of an unmanned aircraft that the Lithuanian military's radar had not detected. The ARAS counter-terrorism unit found an explosive device at the scene and neutralized it in a controlled detonation on Monday. Vilmantas Vitkauskas, head of Lithuania's National Crisis Management Centre, claimed after the neutralization that no explosion had been recorded and that explosives probably had not been found — a statement that contradicts the original police version. According to Lithuanian authorities, this is likely another stray Ukrainian drone, one of several that have fallen on NATO territory over the past two months — and in Riga, the government has already fallen because of the same type of incident four days ago. LRT.lt ↗

A grass-mower's coincidence

The wreckage was found in Utena district, about 40 kilometers from the Latvian border and 55 kilometers from the Belarusian border. Mindaugas Puskunigis, deputy head of the Utena district police, described the discovery to journalists as follows: "He noticed the wreckage and contacted police officers. He was looking for advice, and the officers immediately understood that it could be a crashed drone." The Lithuanian military did not identify the drone by radar, and no fighter jet could be scrambled into action. AP wire (WHBL) ↗

Police called in the ARAS counter-terrorism unit, which on Monday afternoon neutralized the explosives from the device in a controlled detonation directly at the discovery site — transport would, according to authorities, have been too risky. Vitkauskas's version, according to which no explosion was recorded and the explosives in the drone "probably were not there," came only after the neutralization itself and contradicts the police's statement. The Prosecutor General's Office has attached the investigation to preliminary proceedings concerning Russian war crimes in Ukraine, which gives the incident a legal framework outside the bilateral dispute with Kyiv. Lithuania's National Security Council meets on Wednesday. LRT.lt ↗

A chain of eight in two months

The Lithuanian incident is not an isolated case. Since March, at least an eighth Ukrainian unmanned aircraft that deviated from its course toward a target in Russia has fallen on NATO territory. AeroTime ↗

On March 23, a drone crashed near the village of Lavys in Varėna, about 23 kilometers from the Belarusian border — Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė described it as a Ukrainian Gerbera-type decoy aircraft made of plywood and plastic foam. On March 25, one struck the chimney of the Auvere power plant in Estonia, two kilometers from the Russian border, and another fell in Latvia's Krāslava. On March 29 and 30, two drones ended up near the Finnish town of Kouvola; one of them was identified as an AN-196 Liutyi attack drone with an unactivated warhead. AeroTime ↗

The most serious incident came on May 7 in Latvia. Three Ukrainian drones flew across the border from Russia; two fell near the city of Rēzekne — one struck an oil depot, damaging four empty tanks. French fighter jets of the Baltic Air Policing mission were put on alert, and flights over eastern Latvia were restricted to an altitude of six kilometers. The Globe and Mail ↗

Also read: Two days before Putin's parade: drones near Rēzekne, ABW uncovers sabotage cells

Government fell in Riga, pressure mounts in Vilnius

The Rēzekne attack became a political bombshell. Cell Broadcast warnings reached residents of the area so late that the drones had already been seen in the sky. The national army did not detect the first of the devices. Meduza ↗

On May 10, Latvian Defence Minister Andris Sprūds resigned. Four days later, on May 14, Prime Minister Evika Siliņa also announced her resignation, after the Progressives party left the coalition over a dispute regarding her successor at the defence ministry. "I am resigning, but I am not giving up," Siliņa declared. President Edgars Rinkēvičs subsequently began consultations with all parliamentary parties — Latvia may operate with a caretaker cabinet until the parliamentary elections on October 3. The Irish Times ↗

Also read: Latvian government fell after dispute over Ukrainian drones: after Sprūds, Prime Minister Siliņa also steps down

Lithuanian Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas has not yet had to defend his resignation before parliament, but political pressure is shifting closer to his ministry with each new incident. The question of why radar failed to detect a drone flying over the nearly three-hundred-kilometer border with Belarus will become public after Wednesday's meeting of the National Security Council.

Kyiv apologizes, Moscow frames it the opposite way

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha attributes the deviations to "Russian electronic warfare systems that diverted Ukrainian drones from their targets in Russia." Kyiv acknowledged responsibility after the Latvian incident, and President Volodymyr Zelensky offered the Baltic states Ukrainian experts on airspace protection. The Ukrainian side has not yet publicly commented on the Lithuanian incident. Meduza ↗

Moscow frames the same series of incidents in the opposite way. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned back in an April briefing that Russia "will respond if other countries provide their airspace for hostile activity against Russia" — a narrative according to which the Baltic states are helping Kyiv carry out operations on Russian territory. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania rejected this interpretation in a joint statement on April 10 as "part of a Russian disinformation campaign." European Pravda ↗

NATO without a joint anti-drone response

Despite eight incidents, the North Atlantic Alliance has so far neither convened Article 4 consultations nor considered a stronger response. The reaction remains a strengthened rotation of the Baltic Air Policing mission and verbal affirmations of solidarity. Meduza ↗

Lithuanian Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas is publicly calling for the construction of a multi-layered anti-drone defence — a combination of radar, electronic jamming, and kinetic interceptors, such as Ukraine already uses. Latvia has committed to raising its defence budget to five percent of GDP by 2035. Estonia and Finland are dealing with similar airspace violations, but a joint alliance-wide anti-drone response has not yet emerged. The question is whether another fallen government or more damaged oil tanks will be needed to bring it about. AeroTime ↗

Slovakia on the same NATO flank

Slovakia lies on the same eastern NATO flank as the Baltic states and shares a 98-kilometer border with Ukraine. We came close to the same type of incident on May 13, when the Slovak government exceptionally closed all crossings with Ukraine after a missile-and-drone strike on Zakarpattia. TA3 ↗

Meanwhile, the diplomatic constellation around Kyiv has shifted. The new Budapest government of Péter Magyar, sworn in on May 13, summoned the Russian ambassador the following day after the attack on Zakarpattia and opened the first negotiations with Kyiv on the status of the Hungarian minority after years of tension. Hungary has thus, after four years of war, broken away from the bloc of Putin's accommodators within the EU. The loudest opponent of Ukraine's candidacy in Brussels thus remains Robert Fico — without Orbán as an ally, and with the same eastern flank now facing devices diverted from strike routes against Russia.

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