Two days before Putin's parade: drones near Rēzekne, ABW exposes sabotage cells, Mentzen attacks army chief

On Thursday morning at 3:30, an unmanned aircraft struck an oil depot in Rēzekne, Latvia, near the Russian border. A few hours earlier, Poland's counterintelligence agency ABW had published a report according to which Russian sabotage operations in Europe are becoming professionalized and merging with organized crime networks. And that same week, the leader of the right-wing Confederation, Sławomir Mentzen, at a pre-election rally in Elbląg called the chief of the Polish army's General Staff "abnormal" and accused him of lacking competence even for the rank of corporal. From HotInfo's perspective, three different signals on NATO's eastern flank within less than 48 hours of May 9 in Moscow, where Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico will be the only EU prime minister in attendance.

Rēzekne, 3:30 a.m.

Latvian authorities sent mobile alerts to residents in the Ludza and Balvi districts at 4:09, and in Rēzekne at 4:43. Rēzekne is a district town in Latgale, a region in eastern Latvia located about 40 kilometers from the Russian border and roughly 70 kilometers from the Belarusian one. The National Armed Forces then announced around 5:30 that two unmanned aircraft had crashed on Latvian territory and that army units, state police, and firefighters were responding on site. All schools in Rēzekne remained closed on Thursday. RMF24 ↗

One of the aircraft likely came down earlier — at 3:30, the State Police received a report from an oil depot on Komunālā Street in Rēzekne, where smoke was visible. Police and firefighters later confirmed that debris consistent with a drone was found at the site; a smoldering source inside one of the tanks was extinguished. Reuters/Asharq Al-Awsat ↗

Latvian Defense Minister Andris Sprūds stated on Thursday morning that the drones were "probably launched by Ukraine at targets in Russia." Latvia's public broadcaster LSM reported that the aircraft entered Latvian airspace from Russian territory, but cautioned that this does not yet mean they were Russian. A previous incident series from late March, when drones fell on Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania following a major Ukrainian attack on the Russian port of Ust-Luga, turned out to be Ukrainian drones diverted from their trajectory by Russian electronic jamming. Latvian, Estonian, and Lithuanian military authorities officially identified the origin at that time. Defense News ↗

Latvia has been receiving airspace warnings regularly over the past two months — most recently on May 3, before Thursday's incident. OSW ↗

"An undeclared war on the Western world"

On Wednesday afternoon, Poland's Internal Security Agency (ABW) published a report explicitly describing ongoing Russian operations in Europe as an "undeclared war on the Western world." AP ↗

Key figures from the report: in 2024 and 2025, the ABW opened 69 espionage investigations — the same number as from 1991 through the end of 2023 combined. Sixty-two people were arrested. The Associated Press, which reported on the document, counts more than 150 hybrid-attack incidents on European territory linked by Western authorities to Moscow since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, according to its own database. AP ↗

The ABW notes a fundamental shift in the structure of these operations. In 2023, Russian services still relied on one-off agents recruited online, often without knowing for whom they were working. In 2024 and 2025, they shifted to "comprehensive sabotage cells" linked to "closed structures of organized crime." According to the report, Russian services now prefer people with experience in security and armed forces — former soldiers, police officers, Wagner Group mercenaries. At the same time, they have intensified agent training directly on Russian territory, focused on "professional preparation for terrorist activity." The report also acknowledges "the possibility of loss of life." Military.com (AP) ↗

The ABW report also includes Belarus and China — according to the agency, Minsk "closely cooperates" with Moscow on espionage operations against Poland. The long-term goal, as the agency itself puts it: "the disintegration of Euro-Atlantic structures, the isolation of specific countries, and their internal socio-political and economic destabilization." AP ↗

In November 2025, Poland experienced an incident that Prime Minister Donald Tusk called an "unprecedented act of sabotage" — explosions and other disruptions on a railway line used for supplies to Ukraine affected two trains, including a passenger one. There were no casualties. The investigation is ongoing. AP ↗

"Pierwszy Żołnierz RP"

A third — internal — thread has its roots in an interview from November 17, 2025. General Wiesław Kukuła, chief of the Polish army's General Staff and titled in Poland as "Pierwszy Żołnierz RP" — First Soldier of the Republic — stated in an interview for the daily Rzeczpospolita that Poland is in a "przedwojenny" — pre-war — state, and compared the atmosphere to 1939 or 1981. According to the general, "the adversary is deliberately creating an environment aimed at enabling aggression on Polish territory"; sabotage, cyberattacks, and railway sabotage between Warsaw and Lublin are, in his view, part of this process. Rzeczpospolita ↗

This week — a few days before Putin's parade — Kukuła's statement became the subject of the election campaign. The leader of the right-wing Confederation, Sławomir Mentzen, publicly attacked the general on Tuesday, May 5, at a rally in Elbląg. He called him "abnormal" and declared that "this man doesn't have the competence even for the rank of corporal, because he has never led anything — and now he has our entire army." The pretext was a dispute over strategy for defending against cheap drones — Mentzen criticized the use of expensive missile systems against improvised unmanned aircraft, which in the operational zone serve as cheap decoy targets. General Kukuła holds that protecting civilians takes precedence over cost calculations. Defence24 ↗

The reaction across the political spectrum was swift. Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz called the statement an "absolute lack of responsibility" and an attack on the armed forces. Former Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak of the opposition PiS party also joined the criticism. President Karol Nawrocki, elected on the PiS ticket, sided with the general. Even Krzysztof Bosak, the Confederation's other co-leader, did not back Mentzen: the statement, in his view, is "offensive and does not correspond to the truth." Kukuła himself responded briefly: "Nothing of the sort." PolsatNews ↗ TVN24 ↗

Meanwhile: American troops

On Wednesday evening, another debate entered the public sphere. During a joint Polish-Lithuanian exercise in Lithuania, Karol Nawrocki announced that Poland is ready to accept the American troops that Trump's Pentagon plans to withdraw from Germany — and that he would personally lobby Donald Trump on the matter. Two days earlier, Prime Minister Donald Tusk had warned that Warsaw must not gain allies at Berlin's expense, but that it would nonetheless "seize every opportunity" to increase the American presence. Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski added that additional troops "will be welcome in Poland," regardless of where they are relocated from. Poland currently hosts about 10,000 American troops, Germany 36,000. The Pentagon has announced the withdrawal of approximately 5,000 troops from Germany over a period of six to twelve months. Politico Europe ↗

Before Moscow

On Friday, May 9, at ten o'clock Moscow time, the announced — but according to Western intelligence services, scaled-down — parade will begin. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico will be the only head of government from the European Union among the confirmed guests. Berlin will again restrict Russian, Soviet, and Belarusian symbols at memorials on May 8 and 9. Three signals from the Polish-Baltic zone — drones near Rēzekne, the ABW report on professionalized sabotage cells, and Mentzen's statement against a general who speaks of a "pre-war state" — arrived less than 48 hours before it.

Also read: Three days to May 9: Fico is the only EU prime minister among the confirmed guests

Also read: Putin in paranoia: bunker, phone bans, and fears of a coup ahead of the May parade

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