At the same time, the United States completed the deployment of a third aircraft carrier to the wider Middle East region. The USS George H. W. Bush carrier arrived in the Gulf of Aden after sailing around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope. The Madrid daily El Mundo describes the current American presence as the largest military concentration in the region since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. El Mundo ↗
In an interview with Fox News on Sunday, Donald Trump claimed that Iran's oil system could "explode" within three days if the blockade of Hormuz continues. He did not present the timeframe as a verifiable technical analysis, but rather as his own explanation of the pressure on Tehran. In the same interview, he canceled the trip of his negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan. ANSA ↗
St. Petersburg as a substitute stage after canceled Islamabad
Araghchi landed in Islamabad on Saturday, where a second round of talks with the American delegation was expected. However, Witkoff and Kushner did not arrive — Trump canceled the trip at the last minute. According to Der Spiegel, over the weekend Araghchi managed a flight to Oman, a return to Pakistan, and a departure to Russia on Sunday evening. Iran's ambassador to Moscow, Kazem Jalali, told the ISNA news agency that Putin would meet with Araghchi on Monday. The Russian agency TASS confirmed Putin's schedule, according to ANSA. Der Spiegel ↗ ANSA ↗Die Zeit, citing Iran's Tasnim, writes that in St. Petersburg Araghchi is to convey Tehran's "red lines" — the immediate lifting of the American naval blockade and a new legal regime for the Strait of Hormuz. Die Zeit ↗
France 24's correspondent in Tehran, Siavash Ghazi, sums up the situation briefly: Tehran is seeking a deal with the Americans in order to return to normal life — the state of semi-war and semi-peace is taking a toll on Iran's economy. France 24 ↗
Three aircraft carriers to "soften the maximalists"
The USS George H. W. Bush, USS Abraham Lincoln, and USS Gerald R. Ford — three American nuclear-powered aircraft carriers — are, according to El Mundo, deployed simultaneously in one region for the first time since 2003. The Lincoln is operating in the Arabian Sea, the Ford near the Suez Canal, and the newly arrived Bush in the Gulf of Aden. El Mundo ↗The Madrid daily estimates that "perhaps more than 60,000" American troops are currently deployed in the Middle East, along with more than 200 aircraft aboard ships, two amphibious groups, and part of the 82nd Airborne Division together with special forces. The purpose, according to El Mundo: to "soften the maximalist positions of Iran's leadership." This framing is the newspaper's interpretation, not an official statement from the Pentagon. The analysis also notes a limit — this force is not sufficient for a ground operation on the scale of the invasion of Iraq. El Mundo ↗
Trump's oil ultimatum
In the Sunday interview with Fox News, Trump described Iran's oil system as doomed to fail under its own weight: "When you have a huge amount of oil underground and for whatever reason the production line shuts down — because you can't store the oil in tanks or load it onto ships — the line explodes from within." He added: "There are three days left before that happens. Once it blows up, you can't restore it to how it was before, at best to 50 percent." ANSA ↗The timeframe Trump cites cannot be independently verified. It is his own interpretation of the engineering state of Iran's oil fields, unsupported by data from OPEC or the International Energy Agency. La Repubblica ↗
In the same interview, Trump explained why he canceled Witkoff and Kushner's trip to Pakistan — in his view, Iran's offer was "unacceptable." El País also quotes another statement he made to the station: "If they want, we can talk, but we won't be sending people." El País ↗
The Czech outlet Novinky, citing Axios, writes that Tehran has meanwhile submitted a new proposal to the US: the immediate opening of Hormuz and postponement of nuclear talks to a later stage. This is a shift from Iran's previous position, under which the deal was meant to be a package. According to Die Zeit, Trump called this proposal unacceptable. novinky.cz / Axios ↗ Die Zeit ↗
European political nervousness: Athens, Macron, Le Pen
Politico Europe frames the crisis on Monday with the headline "Trump's clash with Iran is becoming a European political nightmare." Brussels is watching as rising energy prices "cascade" into food, transport, and housing, hitting lower and middle classes the hardest. Politico Europe ↗Representatives of the finance ministers of the EU's 27 member states are meeting in Athens on Monday. The topic is cushioning the economic shock without falling into a debt crisis. European Commissioner for the Economy Valdis Dombrovskis told Politico: "Our advice is to stick to temporary and targeted measures in order to limit their fiscal impact — fiscal space has been limited ever since the pandemic and the first energy crisis in 2022." Politico Europe ↗
French President Emmanuel Macron, following Friday's Delphi Economic Forum in Greece, put the moment more sharply: "We should not underestimate that this is a unique moment — the American, Russian, and Chinese presidents are all decidedly against the Europeans." Among the political risks, Politico lists the victory of former Bulgarian president Rumen Radev on April 20, whom the paper describes as a pro-Kremlin figure. It further names the coalition crisis that could weaken pro-European Romanian Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, a strengthened Alternative for Germany ahead of September elections in Saxony-Anhalt, and the 2027 scenario involving Marine Le Pen in France. These are Politico's scenarios, not certainties. Politico Europe ↗
BBC News reports that the price of Brent crude rose back above $100 a barrel following Sunday's reports of stalled talks. British government minister Darren Jones warned, according to The Guardian, that higher energy prices will continue to burden the United Kingdom for about eight more months even if the war ends. BBC News ↗ The Guardian ↗
What HotInfo is watching
- The outcome of Monday's Athens meeting of EU deputy finance ministers — a coordinated plan to cushion the economic shock, or fragmentation.
- Whether the Kremlin publicly confirms the Putin–Araghchi meeting and what format it chooses (a "mediator" gesture vs. a direct Russian-Iranian tie).→ Putyin Oroszországban fogadta az iráni külügyminisztertPutin prijal Arákčího v Rusku 27.4. večer — Telex (HU): Putyin Oroszországban fogadta az iráni külügyminisztert. Kremeľ v mediátorskej role, obsah rokovania zatiaľ neverejný.
- Whether the US sends Witkoff and Kushner back to Pakistan, or Trump lets the Iranian side negotiate only by phone.→ Ford odišiel, Charles de Gaulle prichádza. WaPo našiel na satelitných snímkach …Trump 5.5. pozastavil Project Freedom s odvolaním sa na žiadosť Pakistanu a veľký pokrok; Witkoff a Kushner explicitne uvedení ako vyslanci, Šaríf ako prostredník (Axios, NPR, AJ).
- The White House response to the new Iranian proposal (open Hormuz immediately, nuclear talks later), per Axios.→ Trump so svojimi poradcami prerokoval nový iránsky návrhTrump rokoval s poradcami o iránskom návrhu — Leavittová cez Truth Social potvrdila vnútornú diskusiu White House. Signál: kanál cez Moskvu otvorený, nie eskalácia.
- The price of Brent crude — holding above $100 a barrel as a quiet market indicator that the crisis persists.→ Ford odišiel, Charles de Gaulle prichádza. WaPo našiel na satelitných snímkach …Brent 5.5. uzatvoril 109,87 USD; 6.5. po správach o možnej dohode prepadol o vyše šesť percent a počas dňa klesol pod 100 USD. Krízový indikátor sa oslabuje, hoci stále volatilný (CNBC, NBC News).
