A week before Maduro's capture, he opened a Polymarket account. A Fort Bragg soldier made $410,000 on classified information, DOJ says

An American soldier was charged Thursday with making $409,881 on the crypto marketplace Polymarket by betting on the capture of Nicolás Maduro — an operation he himself had helped plan. The Department of Justice unsealed an indictment against 38-year-old Gannon Ken Van Dyke, an active-duty U.S. Army soldier stationed in Fayetteville, North Carolina, at Fort Bragg. According to prosecutors, he created his Polymarket account eight days before the operation and, through a series of 13 bets, deposited approximately $33,000 into it. DOJ ↗ BBC ↗

Timeline: from planning to payout

According to the federal indictment, Van Dyke had been involved in planning the operation, code-named Operation Absolute Resolve, since December 8, 2025. On December 14, he created a new email address that was not registered under his name. On December 26, he opened a Polymarket account, and starting December 27 he began placing bets on markets asking, "Will Maduro be in power on January 31?", "Will U.S. troops enter Venezuela by that date?" and "Will Trump invoke war powers against Venezuela?" All 13 bets were on the "YES" position. According to the indictment, he had access to classified information until January 6, 2026. CNBC ↗

In the predawn hours of January 3, U.S. forces, according to the Pentagon, detained Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores at a residence in Caracas. Air & Space Forces Magazine reports that more than 150 aircraft were involved in the operation — B-1B bombers, F-22 and F-35 fighters, reconnaissance planes, and drones. Helicopters from the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment (Night Stalkers), according to the same source, dropped Delta Force operators near Maduro's compound, while the air force "dismantled and disabled" Venezuelan air defense systems, and the power went out in the capital. Air & Space Forces Magazine ↗

📍 Caracas — U.S. forces detained Maduro and his wife at a residence in the capital; the DOJ does not give the exact location — view on map

Hours after the operation, the president announced its success. Polymarket paid out the "YES" contracts — and, according to the indictment, Van Dyke transferred most of the funds out of his account that same day. Part of it he sent to a foreign cryptocurrency vault, and part to a newly created brokerage account.

Five charges and an attempt to cover his tracks

When media reports began to surface about unusual trading on Polymarket related to Maduro, Van Dyke asked the platform to delete his account, claiming he had lost access to his original email. On the same day, he also changed the email registered on his crypto exchange account to the fictitious address he had created earlier — on December 14. NPR ↗

The indictment charges him with three violations of the Commodity Exchange Act (up to 10 years each), wire fraud (up to 20 years), and an unauthorized monetary transaction (up to 10 years). The case has been assigned to Judge Margaret M. Garnett in the Southern District of New York — the same federal prosecutor's office that is also handling the indictment of Maduro. CBS News ↗

"Our uniformed service members are given access to classified information so the mission can be carried out safely and effectively — not so they can personally profit from it," said acting Attorney General Todd Blanche. FBI Director Kash Patel added: "Any security clearance holder who considers monetizing their access will be held accountable." Polymarket stated that it identified the suspicious trader itself: "When we detected a user trading on classified government information, we referred the matter to the DOJ and cooperated with the investigation." The CFTC also filed a parallel civil lawsuit. CNN ↗

Earlier: a White House warning over Iran

According to American media, Van Dyke's case is the first time U.S. justice authorities have prosecuted a soldier for insider trading on a prediction market — but it is not the first warning sign. Three weeks earlier, similar suspicions arose around Iran: on March 24, the White House Office of Administration sent staff an internal email against betting based on confidential information. Then, on April 7, 50 freshly created Polymarket accounts bet on the announcement of a ceasefire with Iran — minutes before it was posted on Truth Social. Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres asked the SEC to open a federal investigation; however, no one has yet been prosecuted in these cases. Both Polymarket and rival Kalshi promised new security mechanisms following these signals. BBC ↗ TIME ↗

Trump: "the world has become a casino"

The president was asked about the indictment during another event. He replied that he hadn't heard about the case but "would look into it." He then added an assessment of the broader phenomenon: "The world has, unfortunately, become a kind of casino. Look at what's happening all over Europe and elsewhere, they're doing these betting things. I was never really a big fan of it." Al Jazeera ↗

What hotinfo is watching

Federal prosecutors will be looking into whether Van Dyke shared the information with others as well. The parallel CFTC lawsuit could bring civil penalties and a lifetime ban from trading on regulated U.S. markets. Polymarket has long operated in a gray zone for Americans — the platform is based outside the U.S. and has repeatedly dealt with disputes with American regulators. It remains an open question how many other accounts within the military and in Washington did the same thing as Van Dyke during periods of heightened tension.