War against Iran, day 5: US escalates strikes, Iran signals willingness to negotiate

The fifth day of the US-Israeli military operation against Iran brought further escalation of the fighting, but also the first signals of possible negotiations. According to the American command CENTCOM, allied forces have hit more than 1,250 targets on Iranian territory since the start of Operation Epic Fury. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared that the operation is still in an "early phase" and that "bigger and stronger waves of strikes" are coming. CNN ↗

President Donald Trump estimated the duration of the war at 4 to 5 weeks, but admitted it could last longer. The administration is facing criticism for its shifting justifications for the operation — alternately citing regime change, a preventive strike, the nuclear program, and ballistic missiles as the main reason for the strike. Congress will vote this week on resolutions limiting the president's war powers, but both are likely to be rejected. Al Jazeera ↗

Iran responded by firing more than 500 ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones at American and Israeli targets in the region. The Revolutionary Guards announced attacks on 27 American bases in the Middle East, including targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. A drone hit a parking lot at the American consulate in Dubai. At the British base RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, a suspicious Iranian drone landed on the runway. TIME ↗

An American submarine sank the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka, killing at least 87 crew members. NATO defenses shot down an Iranian ballistic missile heading toward Turkey — the alliance condemned its launch. The National ↗

The death toll on the Iranian side reached 1,045 dead, according to the Tasnim agency. International attention is focused on the mass funeral of 165 victims of the attack on a girls' school in Minab, where most of the victims were children. On the American side, six soldiers were killed in an Iranian drone attack on the port of Shuaiba in Kuwait on March 1. An Iranian ballistic missile struck the Israeli city of Beit Shemesh, killing 9 people. Al Jazeera ↗

The Revolutionary Guards declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and threatened to set fire to any vessel. Tanker traffic has fallen to almost zero, threatening 20 million barrels of oil per day and 30 percent of Europe's jet fuel supplies. The price of Brent crude oil rose 13 percent to more than 82 dollars per barrel. For the first time since the start of the war, however, prices fell slightly on March 4 following Trump's promise of tanker insurance and naval escort convoys. CNBC ↗

The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed damage to buildings at the Natanz nuclear facility. Satellite images show two strikes on access points to the underground uranium enrichment facility. Russia's Rosatom warned of a regional catastrophe in the event of a strike on the Bushehr nuclear power plant and evacuated nearly 100 people. Al Jazeera ↗

Britain is not directly participating in offensive operations, but Prime Minister Keir Starmer agreed to the use of British bases for defensive purposes. A British RAF Typhoon fighter jet shot down an Iranian drone heading toward Qatar. A heated debate is underway in parliament about the legality of the United Kingdom's involvement. GOV.UK ↗

The key signal of the day is a report from the New York Times, according to which Iran made indirect contact with the US to explore the possibility of negotiations to end the conflict. Markets reacted to the news with a slight rise, and oil prices fell for the first time since the start of the war. The question remains whether this represents a genuine diplomatic shift or merely a tactical move by Tehran during the transitional period following the death of Ayatollah Khamenei.