What the agreement says
The joint statement by the US, Israel, and Lebanon envisions the creation of pilot zones in southern Lebanon, where the Lebanese army is to ensure that Hezbollah does not remain present, and from which the Israeli army will withdraw. The condition is a complete halt to fire by Hezbollah and its withdrawal from the territory south of the Litani River. The parties want to negotiate a more comprehensive agreement during the week of June 22 in Washington. CBS News ↗ The American side emphasized that the ceasefire will hold only if Hezbollah also stops its attacks, not just the Israeli army. Bloomberg ↗Why the agreement is fragile
The biggest unknown is Hezbollah itself. While the movement had previously declared it would agree to a full ceasefire, it was not a participant in the Washington talks and did not immediately respond to the new agreement. Washington Post ↗ According to AP, in recent days it has fired both projectiles and drones at Israel, which further calls the fragile ceasefire into question. AP ↗The Iranian shadow
Alongside the diplomacy, Tehran has hardened its stance. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared that any attack on Beirut would have "serious consequences and lead to a full resumption of war," and that Iranian armed forces are ready to strike Israel if it attacks the Lebanese capital. Arab News ↗ Araghchi insists that the ceasefire between Iran and the US applies "on all fronts, including Lebanon," and that a violation on one front is a violation everywhere. Al Jazeera ↗A war that has officially "ended" several times already
The ceasefire in Lebanon has repeatedly collapsed. In early May, Al Jazeera recorded 2,659 dead since the start of the Israeli operation on March 2, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health. Al Jazeera ↗ AP now cites Lebanese authorities as reporting 3,468 dead. AP ↗ Just this week, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon claimed further lives. It is precisely this gap between the word "ceasefire" and the daily casualties that explains why the new agreement is met with caution rather than relief.Also read: Netanyahu speaks of disarming Hezbollah, southern Lebanon faces attacks
What hotinfo is following
- Whether Hezbollah formally accepts the terms of the agreement (pilot zones, withdrawal from the territory south of the Litani River)
- The talks during the week of June 22 in Washington on a comprehensive agreement
- Whether the Israeli army actually withdraws and the Lebanese army moves in
- Iran's "red line" over Beirut — whether it remains mere rhetoric
