Trump has lost Congress, but not foreign policy. For Ukraine and Europe, that means relief without guarantees

After Tuesday's elections, Democrats will control both chambers of the US Congress from January, something Donald Trump has not experienced during the six years of his two administrations. After their initial relief, Europe and Ukraine are asking what will really change, because tariffs, sanctions and talks with Moscow remain in the White House's hands. Experts approached by Politico also warn that a president weakened at home may vent his frustration on Europe. iROZHLAS ↗

What Congress can and cannot do

The scale of the defeat is not in dispute. On Wednesday morning, Democrats were leading by 13 percentage points in the total House vote, the most since 1974, and NBC News projected that they would win 258 of the 435 seats. In the Senate, they gained at least seven seats and will hold at least 54 of the 100. The count is not yet complete. Denník N ↗

The new majority will control the budget, hearings and investigative committees. Congressman Robert Garcia, the likely new chair of the House Oversight Committee, has already told the administration to prepare its lawyers. Politico expects investigations into the war with Iran, the running of the FBI and the Trump family's business dealings. N1 (Politico) ↗

Phil Gordon, Kamala Harris's former national security adviser, described the limits of this power. Trump, he said, still commands the armed forces, controls tariffs and trade agreements, and can veto laws. N1 (Politico) ↗ Trump himself responded to the defeat with a photo of a red cap bearing the word “veto”. TVN24 ↗

Matthew Whitaker, the US ambassador to NATO, summed it up by saying that US foreign policy had not changed. Onet (Politico) ↗ Europe does have one safeguard regardless of the election: under a law recalled by Corriere della Sera, the president cannot withdraw from NATO without the Senate's consent. Sky TG24 ↗

British ITV News edited together Trump's reaction and the key results of election night. The video is in English.

Europe: relief and fear of a “lame duck turned mad”

Some welcomed the result openly. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez wrote that Americans had voted against a policy that merely impoverishes people and against hatred. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski reshared his sarcastic response to Elon Musk from June 2025. Onet (Politico) ↗ Prime Minister Donald Tusk hopes the result will stabilise the situation in the region and, at a press conference with Andrej Babiš, added some advice about Trump's cap: “I would advise against abusing the veto as a method of governing.” TVN24 ↗

Ministers who work with Washington every day spoke more cautiously. Germany's Boris Pistorius called the Democrats' victory historic, but said relations with the Trump administration remained based on trust and that he did not know what the president would do in the near future. LRT ↗ France's Roland Lescure warned that although Trump would be weakened at home, the unpredictable president would continue to direct international policy. Onet (Politico) ↗

Germany's Tagesspiegel summed up the concern by asking whether a “lame duck” might become a “mad duck”. Tagesspiegel ↗ Austria's Kleine Zeitung writes that the Democrats' victory is no reason for Europe to cheer, because Trump has more or less a free hand in foreign policy. Kleine Zeitung ↗

Wolfgang Ischinger, the longtime head of the Munich Security Conference, goes furthest. Europe, he says, should prepare not for more harmonious relations, but for even more anger and demands. iROZHLAS ↗ Before the election, he warned that loud celebrations of the Democrats' victory could irritate the White House. Nathalie Tocci, a former adviser to two EU foreign-policy chiefs, countered that restraint would not change Trump, because he needs little encouragement to quarrel with Europe. Politis (Politico) ↗

Polish TVP World devoted part of its midday news to European reactions. The segment begins at 3:35 and the video is in English.

Ukraine: a breath, not salvation

Most senior Democrats have long supported aid to Ukraine. Bronwen Maddox, director of Chatham House, however, warns that even if the Democrats decided to send Kyiv more money, it would take months, perhaps years, for the effects to be felt. Politico adds that Ukraine needs help immediately, especially Patriot missiles to survive the winter. N1 (Politico) ↗

The urgency is tangible. On election day, Russia launched its largest attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this year. Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal reported 289 drones, 17 ballistic missiles and 59 cruise missiles; according to him, three of the drones targeted a substation important to the Khmelnytskyi nuclear power plant. Kyiv Independent ↗

Regional commentators also disagree in their assessments. Ukrainska Pravda headlined its analysis “Bad for Trump, good for Kyiv”. Ukrajinská pravda ↗ Poland's Rzeczpospolita gave Jędrzej Bielecki's commentary the headline “Trump has been held to account, Ukraine is saved”. Rzeczpospolita ↗ In the same newspaper, however, Ukrainian political scientist Yevhen Mahda says: “I am not celebrating personally, because I think the Democrats will not solve most of the problems in Ukrainian-American relations.” What will matter more to them, he says, is attacking Trump rather than helping Ukraine. Rzeczpospolita ↗ Journalist Zbigniew Parafianowicz estimates for Wirtualna Polska that Kyiv will try to “outlast” Trump. Wirtualna Polska ↗

A worse scenario is described by former US ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker. He can imagine Trump unilaterally ordering the Treasury Department not to enforce sanctions and seeking further energy deals with Russia regardless of protests from Kyiv and Europe. iROZHLAS ↗ On NATO, by contrast, he expects threats rather than action, because Trump lacks support either for withdrawal or for pulling out troops. N1 (Politico) ↗

Moscow: calm on the surface, tougher calculations underneath

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov commented on the election result tersely: “President Trump continues to exercise his powers. We sincerely hope that he will also continue his efforts to achieve peace.” He refused to speculate on whether Congress could thwart those efforts, saying that it was an internal US matter. TASR ↗

Bloomberg, as quoted by Wirtualna Polska during the night before the final results, describes a different line of thinking, citing unnamed sources. According to the report, the Kremlin no longer believes that a weakened Trump can force Ukraine to accept a deal on Russian terms, and is preparing to intensify strikes on energy infrastructure and pressure on Kyiv's European allies. At the same time, it is reportedly seeking a partial easing of US sanctions independently of the situation on the front. Wirtualna Polska (Bloomberg) ↗

The first test will come before the new congressmen take office. Delegations from the US, Ukraine and Russia will meet in Abu Dhabi on 10 and 11 November. TASR ↗ Marek Magierowski, a former Polish ambassador to Washington, is concerned that Steve Witkoff reportedly mentioned a “post-war security architecture in Europe” on the agenda. In his view, this could be a return to Russia's 2022 proposal to demilitarise NATO's eastern flank. This is his interpretation, not a confirmed agenda item. Wirtualna Polska ↗

Where the power struggle between the president and Congress has already begun is shown by the Russian diesel deal. New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill did not wait until January: on 2 November she wrote to the ports that the imports still violated federal law and urged them to reject the tankers. "Any effort to profit from the illegal trade in Russian fuel will be met with harsh penalties," states in the letter. Kyiv Independent ↗

What it means for Slovakia

Slovak analysts expect benefits, but not quickly. Marián Kočiš of Slovenská sporiteľňa points out that protecting domestic industry enjoys support across the political spectrum in the US, so he does not expect a fundamental shift in trade policy. Any easing of tariffs would help Slovakia directly through car exports and indirectly through demand in the EU. Patrik Kindl of Finax adds that, in his view, relations should not deteriorate further, although the president can veto Congress's decisions. Trend ↗

Gas could affect Slovakia more directly. According to the Wall Street Journal, Witkoff and Kushner proposed in September restoring the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine, with an American intermediary selling it to Europe. Robert Fico has advocated restoring transit since it was halted at the beginning of 2025, so the proposal aligns with Slovak interests on this point. Trend ↗

The plan faces obstacles on both sides. Peskov declared that such plans could not be implemented under the current circumstances. Pravda ↗ The Union has legislated an end to Russian gas imports by 2027, and the ban also applies to imports through third countries. "The Americans can propose what they want. That doesn't mean we will agree to it," said an unnamed senior EU official. Kyiv Independent ↗ The plan will therefore not be decided by the new Congress, but by Moscow and Brussels.

Who in Europe has lost a role model

Politico broadens its reading of the result to Europe's far right, which for a long time balanced admiration for Trump against his unpopularity on the continent. Jordan Bardella, leader of France's National Rally, explains the “unfavourable” result by the war with Iran and points out that Marine Le Pen continues to lead the polls. Marine Tondelier, leader of the French Greens, by contrast, speaks of a warning for France ahead of the April presidential election. Onet (Politico) ↗

In Rome, according to Il Sole 24 Ore, they had hoped Trump would retain at least the Senate. When asked about the election, Giorgia Meloni avoided the question by saying that the US was something they would “discuss another time”, but Ylenja Lucaselli, an MP from her party, is already saying that the future of the centre-right is suggested by the Italian model. Il Sole 24 Ore ↗ Andrej Babiš said he hoped Trump would finally fulfil his promise and end the war in Ukraine. Novinky.cz ↗

Limits of this perspective

Most of the experts cited appeared in a single Politico article, and we were unable to open the original text; we read it in versions carried by N1, iROZHLAS and Onet. We therefore present the statements by Ischinger, Volker, Gordon and Maddox indirectly. Moreover, they are figures from the transatlantic establishment who view the prospect of an angry Trump from the European side. This is a forecast, not an event, and Trump may do the opposite.

The Bloomberg report relies on unnamed sources and was produced before the final results. We know the analyses by Ukrainska Pravda and Rzeczpospolita only from their headlines and introductions, because we were unable to open the full text or it is behind a paywall. We have Babiš's statement from the Novinky headline. The seat counts are projections based on the ongoing count and may still change.

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