Day 10 of the war: Israel struck Iranian refineries, Tehran was shrouded in toxic smoke, and oil is nearing $120

On Sunday afternoon, Israel struck Iranian oil refineries for the first time since the conflict began. According to satellite imagery and local sources, five targets in the Tehran area were hit, including the refinery in Rey and the terminal on Kharg Island, through which 90 percent of Iran's oil exports flow. The price of Brent crude oil rose to $118 per barrel, with Goldman Sachs analysts warning that it could exceed the $120 threshold within days. CNN ↗

Tehran shrouded in thick toxic smoke

Residents of the Iranian capital report black rain and a heavy petrochemical smell following the strikes on the refineries. The Iranian Red Crescent ordered the evacuation of three districts in southern Tehran. Health authorities warned against inhaling the contaminated air and recorded hundreds of cases of respiratory problems. Satellite images from Maxar Technologies show a smoke cloud spreading over an area of 40 × 15 kilometers. NBC News ↗

NATO intercepted an Iranian missile over Turkey

NATO confirmed that Turkish air defense systems, in cooperation with allies, intercepted a ballistic missile over eastern Turkey. The missile was likely headed toward the American Incirlik base. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte convened an emergency meeting under Article 4 of the treaty and called the incident an "unprecedented attack on the sovereignty of a member state." Ankara summoned the Iranian ambassador. BBC News ↗

Bellingcat: American Tomahawk landed near a school

The investigative outlet Bellingcat published a geolocated video of an American Tomahawk missile that landed in a residential neighborhood in Isfahan, just 200 meters from an elementary school. According to local authorities, at least 180 civilians, including children, were killed in the attack. The Pentagon stated that the target was a "military command node" and that the incident is under investigation. The footage triggered a wave of international criticism. Bellingcat ↗

Khamenei reportedly injured

Israeli military intelligence claims that Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was injured in one of the attacks on Tehran. The IDF released intercepted IRGC communications suggesting Khamenei was being moved to an underground bunker. Iran denied the report and released a short video of the leader appearing healthy. Analysts warn that the injury or death of the new leader could trigger a power struggle in the country. Washington Post ↗

G7 discusses releasing oil reserves

Finance ministers of the G7 countries convened an emergency video conference on the coordinated release of strategic oil reserves. Japan has already announced the release of 15 million barrels, and Germany is considering a similar step. The US Treasury Secretary stated that the United States is prepared to release up to 50 million barrels if the price exceeds $125. The goal is to prevent a global recession. Reuters ↗

France sends fleet to the Strait of Hormuz

President Macron announced the deployment of the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle with an escort to the Strait of Hormuz to "ensure freedom of navigation" for European tankers. An Italian destroyer and a Greek frigate will join the mission. The Strait of Hormuz has been de facto closed to Western ships since March 2, causing a 20 percent shortfall in global oil supplies. Al Jazeera ↗

Israel struck Hezbollah's financial institutions

On Sunday, the IDF carried out another wave of 85 airstrikes on Lebanon, for the first time targeting financial institutions linked to Hezbollah, including the Al-Qard Al-Hassan headquarters in Beirut. Lebanon's Ministry of Health reports a cumulative 420 dead and 1,200 injured since the start of the conflict. In Bahrain, the number of injured following the attack on the oil terminal in Sitra has risen to 67, including rescue workers. NPR ↗

Toll after 10 days – afternoon update

The total number of casualties following the afternoon attacks on the refineries is estimated at more than 1,900 dead and 3,200 injured across 12 countries. Iran recorded the largest increase — an estimated 50 to 80 additional casualties from Tehran and Isfahan. The UN called for an immediate ceasefire and humanitarian access to the affected areas.