Rīga — Sprūds resigns, Colonel Melnis awaits the Saeima
On Sunday, May 10, around midday, Prime Minister Evika Siliņa announced via social media that Defense Minister Andris Sprūds had lost both her trust and the public's trust. According to her, the reason was that anti-drone systems were activated too slowly during Thursday's incident. She called on him to resign. Sprūds announced his resignation on Sunday evening at a press conference he convened. In his statement, he said he was leaving so that the Latvian military would not be drawn "into a political campaign." LSM (Lotyšsko) ↗The trigger was an overnight strike from Wednesday to Thursday, May 7, when two drones struck an oil depot in Rēzekne in the Latgale region, about forty kilometers from the Russian border. Authorities sent mobile alerts only after the strike, hours after the first report at around 3:30 a.m. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stated on Sunday that these were Ukrainian drones that had been diverted from their course toward targets in Russia by Russian electronic jamming: "Investigations have shown this was the result of Russian electronic warfare that deliberately diverted Ukrainian drones from their course." He was quoted by Kyiv Independent. Kyiv Independent ↗
Prime Minister Siliņa nominated Colonel Raivis Melnis for the post; he has served in Latvia's National Armed Forces (NBS), received military education in London, and currently serves with the Ukrainian army. Her justification for the choice: "His experience so far in the NBS, his military education in London, and his current work in Ukraine give assurance that national defense will be run competently, purposefully, and outside pre-election rhetoric." The nomination still needs to be confirmed by parliament — the Saeima. Baltic News Network ↗
Latvia and Lithuania jointly called on NATO as early as May 7 to strengthen air defense in the region. Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas stated in Vilnius that same day that "strengthening anti-drone defense in our region should be a particular NATO focus, and additional capabilities here are welcome." U.S. News (Reuters wire) ↗
Bartoszyce — central government offers no attribution by Monday
As of Monday morning, the central government in Poland had not officially commented on Saturday's discovery of a drone in a field near the village of Osieka in the Polish commune of Bartoszyce, twenty kilometers from the border with Russia's Kaliningrad Oblast. Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, and Interior Minister Marcin Kierwiński had not issued a statement on the machine's origin. RMF24 ↗A spokesperson for the Regional Prosecutor's Office in Olsztyn told media that "we are not disclosing the country of origin," and police declined to confirm or deny reports of Cyrillic markings: "It is too early to talk about that." The Military Gendarmerie confirmed only that it was a "foreign observation device with cameras, likely of military origin." Investigators are unofficially working with the theory that it came from Kaliningrad Oblast — according to local sources, the aircraft's range rules out a flight from Ukraine. TVN24 ↗
The contrast with last autumn is striking. When nineteen to twenty-three Russian drones entered Polish airspace overnight on September 10, 2025, and some were shot down, Prime Minister Tusk and Foreign Minister Sikorski reacted within twenty-four hours. Sikorski at the time called the attack a deliberate "test" by Vladimir Putin. Kyiv Independent ↗
Trump calls Nawrocki a friend, Tusk circumvents the veto
Overnight into Monday, May 11, Donald Trump claimed on Truth Social that the United States had helped secure the release of five prisoners from Belarus and Russia. He did not disclose names. Using the words "my friend Karol Nawrocki," he recalled that the Polish president had asked him for help back in September in the Oval Office regarding Polish-Belarusian journalist Andrzej Poczobut. Poczobut was released as part of a ten-person prisoner exchange at the Polish-Belarusian border on April 28. Onet Wiadomości ↗Trump's Truth Social post landed in the middle of a long-running dispute over European defense credit. In March 2026, President Nawrocki vetoed a law that would have given Poland access to €44 billion from Brussels' SAFE (Security Action for Europe) fund. His argument was that today's eighteen-year-old Poles would be paying off the commitment for their entire working lives. Prime Minister Tusk responded curtly on X: "The president has lost his chance to act like a patriot." Euronews ↗
In May, Tusk's government circumvented the veto. It used existing legal instruments and signed the loan agreement without the new law that the president had blocked. Poland thus became the first European Union country to sign a loan agreement under the SAFE program. Brussels Signal ↗
In parallel, Nawrocki's offer to host American troops that the Pentagon is withdrawing from Germany remains in play. Trump is considering relocating approximately five thousand troops and mentioned it on Truth Social overnight into Monday. According to Politico, Poland hosts about ten thousand American troops, Germany thirty-six thousand. Politico Europe ↗
Dispute within Confederation ahead of the election campaign
On the domestic political front, the right-wing Confederation is entering the election campaign with an open internal dispute. Co-leader Sławomir Mentzen, at a rally in the town of Elbląg on Tuesday, May 5, called the army's chief of general staff Wiesław Kukuła "abnormal" and declared that the general "isn't competent enough even to be a corporal." The dispute was over disagreement on strategy for defense against cheap drones. Defence24 ↗The second co-leader, Krzysztof Bosak, publicly distanced himself from the remark — telling media it was "offensive and untrue." Onet reported on Saturday, citing sources within the party, that Mentzen and Bosak "are fighting over influence," while the right-wing Telewizja Republika is simultaneously openly attacking Nawrocki. Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz of the Polish People's Party condemned the remark as "an absolute lack of responsibility," and President Nawrocki — who was put into office by the opposition Law and Justice party (PiS) — also came to the general's defense. Onet Wiadomości ↗
Five days of hybrid warfare, one week of politics
Five days in the shadow of Putin's parade in Moscow brought NATO's eastern flank three waves of external pressure — drones near Rēzekne on Thursday, the ABW counterintelligence report on sabotage cells on Wednesday, a drone near Bartoszyce on Saturday — and three waves of internal pressure: Mentzen's remark against the general, Bosak's public distancing, and Trump's Truth Social post about his "friend Nawrocki." Still unresolved in the background are the open dispute over SAFE, the planned American redeployment, and the question of how much of this is incidental to the 81st anniversary of Victory Day — and how much is sustained pressure.Also read: Two days before Putin's parade: drones near Rēzekne, ABW uncovers sabotage cells, Mentzen attacks the army chief
Also read: Drone with Cyrillic markings in a field near Bartoszyce: 20 km from the Russian border. The week's third hybrid incident on NATO's eastern flank, on the day of Putin's parade
What hotinfo is following
- Forensic analysis of the Bartoszyce drone — the type of machine (Orlan-10, Forpost, Supercam, or other), serial numbers, operator markings. Police and the Military Gendarmerie are still investigating.
- An official statement from Tusk, Sikorski, and Kierwiński — whether, when, and in what terms the central government will ultimately comment on Bartoszyce. The contrast with the rapid response in September 2025 is striking as of Monday morning.
- Approval of Colonel Melnis by the Saeima — whether the nomination secures a parliamentary majority and whether any objection arises from the coalition partner.
- NATO's response to the Latvian-Lithuanian request — whether and to what extent additional air defense systems will be moved into the region.
- The Confederation dispute — the Mentzen-Bosak rift and Telewizja Republika's attack on Nawrocki, and how they play out in the election campaign and polls.
- Tusk's plan B for SAFE loans — whether the Commission releases the first tranche without further resistance and whether President Nawrocki launches another legal obstruction.
