Many guests invited, few confirmed
Kremlin foreign-policy adviser Yuri Ushakov said at a briefing for journalists on April 29: “*Fico is mentioned a lot, so I can confirm Fico*” — meaning he confirmed only the Slovak prime minister by name. He mentioned other countries only generally: former Soviet republics, Belarus, Central Asian states. Moscow Times ↗Two pro-Russian-oriented guests have been added in recent days: Belarusian President Alexandr Lukašenko announced his attendance after a phone call with Putin, and Milorad Dodik joined from Banja Luka. Lukašenko is the sanctioned authoritarian leader of Belarus, while Dodik does not lead a sovereign state, but an entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina — their presence therefore does not change the fact that no other prime minister or president of an EU or G20 member state has publicly confirmed attendance. U.S. News & World Report (Reuters) ↗
The contrast with last year is sharp. For the 80th anniversary, 27 leaders travelled to Moscow, including Chinese President Si Ťin-pching, Brazil’s Lula, and Serbia’s Aleksandar Vučić. This year, none of them has publicly announced attendance. The Diplomat noted in an analysis from the first days of May that none of the Central Asian presidents — Tokayev (Kazakhstan), Mirziyoyev (Uzbekistan), Zhaparov (Kyrgyzstan), Rahmon (Tajikistan) — had announced attendance, although all came a year ago. The Diplomat ↗
Ushakov also mentioned Viktor Orbán, but after losing the elections on April 12 he is now only serving in a caretaker capacity — the new prime minister, Péter Magyar, will be confirmed by parliament on the very same day Putin is preparing for the parade. We wrote about the context of Fico’s trip and the reduced Moscow parade when the first signal from the Kremlin came about reducing the military part of the celebrations.
The Baltics closed their skies, Poland dropped off the route, Czechia allowed overflight
The Baltic states — Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia — closed their airspace to Fico’s plane on the grounds that the flight is “symbolic support for the aggressor”. LIGA.net ↗ In mid-April, the Slovak prime minister asked Poland for passage, but by the end of April the issue had dropped away. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski told the media on April 27 that “this problem has ceased to exist” — Fico therefore will not fly through Poland, but this was not a formal ban, rather the withdrawal of the request. babel.ua ↗The solution became the Czech Republic: on May 2, Prague allowed the Slovak government aircraft to overfly its airspace. The specific route, however, remains unclear — last year Fico’s plane flew via Hungary, Romania, the Black Sea, and Georgia, along a southern arc more than 5,000 kilometres long. United24 Media ↗
No tanks, the parade on the defensive
Russia’s Defence Ministry confirmed at the end of April that there will be no tanks, missile systems, or artillery units on Red Square this year. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov attributed this to the “terrorist activities of the Kyiv regime”. Moscow Times ↗Conflict Intelligence Team co-founder Ruslan Leviev explained the vulnerability to Moscow Times: “*When military equipment participates in parades, it is parked in advance and prepared for rehearsals in remote areas outside Moscow, in specially designated zones. It would be much easier to attack such areas.*” An anonymous military expert told the same outlet that air-raid alerts could drain systems from the front and “open even bigger holes in Russian territory”.
Ukraine’s Ukrainska Pravda reported on Tuesday, May 5, that Russia is indeed moving part of its air defence from the front to Moscow, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyj has assigned separate tasks to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, the GUR. Ukrainska Pravda ↗ Zelenskyj himself, reacting to the Russian ceasefire proposal, said that “*the Russian Defence Ministry believes it cannot hold the parade in Moscow without Ukraine’s goodwill*”. Al Jazeera ↗
Parallel ceasefires and 27 dead
Russia’s Defence Ministry unilaterally declared a ceasefire on May 4 for May 8-9, citing respect for the memory of the war. (Several days earlier, Ushakov mentioned that Putin had also spoken about willingness to stop firing in a phone call with Donald Trump.) Zelenskyj rejected the proposal as unserious and countered with his own ceasefire for May 5-6. Moscow Times ↗ The proposals do not overlap in time — each side offered days when a halt to attacks suited the other side most.Before midnight on Tuesday came the deadliest wave of attacks in several weeks: 27 dead and more than 120 wounded in Ukraine, according to Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko. CNN reports that Russia fired 11 ballistic missiles and 154 drones; Al Jazeera specified that 12 people were killed by Russian glide bombs in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region and 6 more in Kramatorsk in Donetsk region. CNN ↗ Al Jazeera ↗ Zelenskyj wrote on Telegram during the night of May 4 to 5: “*Human life is incomparably more valuable than the ‘celebration’ of any anniversary*”. Al Jazeera ↗ On Tuesday evening, he added that Russia was already violating the ceasefire and Kyiv would respond in kind. Ukrainska Pravda ↗
Berlin, Budapest, Brussels: signals from three European capitals
While Putin prepares for his Victory Day, European capitals are advancing their own gestures.Berlin — According to Berliner Morgenpost, Berlin police issued a general order that during May 8 and 9 at memorials in the districts of Tiergarten, Treptower Park, and Schönholzer Heide bans Soviet, Russian, Belarusian, and Chechen flags, the letters “Z” and “V”, St George’s ribbons, military uniforms, Russian military songs, and portraits of political leaders of those countries. The ban does not include the flags of attacked Ukraine, following a complaint by Ukrainian associations. Diplomats and Second World War veterans have exemptions. United24 Media ↗ Interfax-Ukraine ↗
Budapest — the new Hungarian government of Péter Magyar on Tuesday, May 6, returned to Kyiv cash and gold that Hungary’s counterterrorism unit had seized in March near Budapest from a convoy between Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank and Ukraine’s Oschadbank. It involved 40 million dollars, 35 million euros, and 9 kilograms of gold — together around 82 million dollars. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrij Sybiha described the step as a “*sign of Hungary’s willingness to develop relations with us*”. Euromaidan Press ↗ Ukrainska Pravda ↗
Brussels — The European Union formally joined the co-founding of a special international tribunal to prosecute the crime of aggression against Ukraine. Sybiha announced that the political agreement is to be ratified by the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe in Chișinău on May 14-15. So far, 24 states, including Belgium, have joined the tribunal. Ukrainska Pravda ↗ Kyiv Independent ↗
At home: Danko demands a guarantee, the opposition pressures Fico
Slovak domestic politics in recent days has been marked mainly by pressure from the SNS — chairman Andrej Danko is demanding a written guarantee from Fico that Slovakia will not vote in favour of Ukraine joining the EU. He thereby opened a debate that Fico himself turned in the opposite direction in Yerevan: according to him, the United States is “washing its hands of Europe” and the Union “must protect itself”. We analysed this domestic background in detail in an article from May 4.The non-parliamentary opposition — Progressive Slovakia, KDH, and SaS — has criticised Fico’s trip consistently since December 2024. Last year on May 9, according to organisers, 35-40 thousand people came to Bratislava’s Freedom Square, and another 15 thousand protested in Košice; the protests were organised by the “Peace for Ukraine” initiative together with opposition parties. Washington Post ↗ For this year’s Saturday, May 9, the opposition has not yet announced a specific number or location.
What hotinfo is watching
- Xi Jinping's final decision — whether Beijing sends at least premier Li Qiang (last year the president came himself).→ Putin zorganizoval v Kremli recepciu pre hostí osláv Dňa víťazstvaZ Číny v 2026 NEPRIŠIEL nikto — ani Xi, ani Li Čchiang. 2026 prehliadka bola najmenšia v modernej histórii (len Laos+Malajzia). Kontrast s 2025 kedy bol Xi osobne. Primary: Moscow Times/Kyiv Independent 8.5.
- The route of Fico's aircraft — whether it flies via Czechia and Hungary, Romania or the Black Sea, and whether the permission holds up under political pressure from allies.→ Premiér Fico odcestoval do Moskvy na oslavy Dňa víťazstva, bude rokovať s Putin…Briefing 1667: Trasa cez Severné more, Švédsko a Fínsko (zákaz preletu nad Pobaltím).
- Ukrainian drone strikes on May 8–10 — whether an attempt on Moscow or on staging areas takes place during or just after the parade; Zelensky has tasked the GUR.→ Zelenskyj očakáva americkú delegáciu, Rusko a Ukrajina si navzájom vyčítajú por…Briefing 1668: Ukrajina útok na Slavneft-Yanos rafineriu v Jaroslavli (~250km SV od Moskvy), Rusko zneškodnilo 264 dronov.
- Magyar's inauguration in Budapest on May 9 — the contrast: Fico beside Putin while neighbouring Hungary shifts from Orbán's rhetoric to a pro-European course.→ Začala sa ustanovujúca schôdza maďarského parlamentu, Magyara zvolia za premiéra9.5. ustanovujúca schôdza maďarského parlamentu — Magyara zvolia za premiéra (svet.sme.sk, teraz.sk, Der Standard)
- The response of Kaja Kallas and the European Parliament — the EU's high representative has repeatedly criticised Fico's trip, but no formal discipline has followed.→ Kallasová odmietla Schrödera, EÚ schválila sankcie. Hormuz padol o 89 percent, …EÚ akceptovala Ficov kompromis (Moskva áno, prehliadka nie) bez formálnych konsekvencií. Euronews sa pýtal EK aké budú dôsledky pre 2026 účastníkov — Komisia neodpovedala. Kallasová pokračovala separátne s odmietnutím Putinovho Schröder návrhu (briefing 877126 z 11.5.).
- Domestic Slovak protests at the departure on May 9 — last year 35,000–40,000 in Bratislava plus 15,000 in Košice (Peace for Ukraine and PS). No calls have gone out this year yet.→ Protest pred ruskou ambasádou. Aktivisti polievali portréty „krvou“ a čítali me…9.5. v Bratislave len malá akcia pred ruskou ambasádou (Godrova, polievanie portrétov krvou, čítanie mien obetí). Žiadne masívne demonštrácie ako vlani — Mier Ukrajine 9.5. nemobilizoval (vs. december 2024 = 3000 pred Úradom vlády). Reálne 2026 protesty boli STOVKY, nie 35-40 tis. ako bolo prognózované.
