For Lithuania, this was the third confirmed incident in seven days. The alert in Vilnius came a day after a separate incident in Estonia, where a Romanian F-16 serving under NATO shot down one unmanned aircraft — likely a Ukrainian drone redirected by strong electronic jamming from Russia. Independent ↗
An hour in the shelters
The Lithuanian defense ministry's alert reached mobile phones at 10:20 a.m.: "Immediately take shelter in a safe place, look after your loved ones, wait for further instructions." It initially applied to four northeastern districts along the border with Belarus — Ignalina, Utena, Švenčionys and Zarasai — and shortly afterward was extended to the entire Vilnius region. Along with the president and prime minister, Speaker of Parliament Juozas Olekas, government members and Seimas deputies also ended up in underground rooms, having been moved to the chamber's basement following an announcement over the internal PA system. Refresher.sk ↗Vilmantas Vitkauskas, head of the National Crisis Management Center, told The Guardian that based on the observed parameters, it was "most likely either a combat drone or a decoy designed to confuse systems and provoke a response." According to him, electronic countermeasures cannot determine whether the explosive charge detonated or not. The Guardian ↗
Fighter jets came up empty
Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas said the drone came from the direction of Latvia. NATO fighter jets were unable to locate it, and authorities could not clarify whether it had crashed or left Lithuanian airspace. "This is the reality. War is being waged close to us — military drones are flying near the territory of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia," he said in a midday statement. Onet ↗European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen attributed responsibility directly to Moscow and Minsk. "Russia's public threats against the Baltic states are completely unacceptable. Russia and Belarus bear direct responsibility for drones that endanger the lives and safety of people on our eastern flank," she wrote on social media. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte added that even in cases where drones ended up in the Baltics from the Ukrainian side, they are not there because Kyiv wants to strike Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia — they are there because of Russia's "reckless, unlawful aggression." The Guardian ↗
Tusk admits a "firm response," Peskov speaks of "mania"
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned the same day that the Ukrainian-Russian war "may soon bring about a situation in which we will have to respond firmly." Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys stated the day before that NATO has the capacity to "raze to the ground" Russian air defense stations and missile bases in the Kaliningrad region. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, according to the Russian state agency TASS as cited by Welt, called Budrys's statement a manifestation of "irresponsibility" and a "manic anti-Russian stance" on the part of Baltic politicians. According to him, the Russian military is "closely monitoring" the situation and "formulating an appropriate response." Welt (quoting Peskov via TASS) ↗Third incident in seven days
For Vilnius, this was not an isolated episode. Following the incident near Utena on May 17 and another stray drone on May 18, the Baltic region has now dealt with a third case in a short span. Meanwhile, in Latvia, Prime Minister Evika Siliņa's government fell in mid-May amid a political crisis over redirected Ukrainian drones, and Defense Minister Andris Sprūds resigned on May 10. The Ukrainian side apologized to the Baltic states for the unintentional incidents, attributing the cause to Russian jamming of navigation systems on drones aimed at targets in Russia. BBC ↗Read also: Lithuania deals with another stray drone carrying explosives. In Latvia, similar incidents have already brought down the government
The Slovak angle
Slovakia is not yet directly involved in protecting Baltic airspace. Defense Minister Robert Kaliňák announced in early May that Slovak F-16s will join NATO's Baltic Air Policing mission only at the end of 2027. Currently, fighter jets from other allies serve there — the ones that scrambled today against the Vilnius drone but failed to intercept the object. Meanwhile, on May 13, eastern Slovakia experienced its first direct hit by Russian drones near Uzhhorod, after which Bratislava closed all border crossings with Ukraine for two hours. TA3 ↗Read also: Uzhhorod under Russian drones for the first time. Slovakia closed border crossings, reopened after two hours
What hotinfo is following
- Attribution of the May 20 drone — a Gerbera decoy drone, an AN-196 Liutyi, or another type; who launched it and what it was aimed at
- Lithuania's National Security Council — the public conclusion following the meeting between the president and PM Ruginienė, and any possible request for consultations under NATO's Article 4
- Defense Minister Kaunas's position — whether he withstands political pressure after NATO fighter jets failed to identify the target
- Further incidents in the Baltics — Estonia, Finland, fragments of new drones, possible discovery of explosives
- Rhetoric on Kaliningrad — whether Budrys's statement about "razing to the ground" brings a diplomatic consequence from Moscow
