French socialists head to primaries, center splinters. Macron meanwhile in Sweden signing frigates for 4.3 billion euros

Emmanuel Macron will attend a signing ceremony in Stockholm today for Sweden's purchase of four frigates for 4.3 billion euros, taking place directly on board the French ship Amiral Ronarc'h. The day before, a field of candidates for his successor formed in France, and it is disproportionate: socialists agreed on joint primaries, the center splits into three candidacies. According to French media polls, Marine Le Pen continues to lead.

Socialists go to primaries with favorite Glucksmann

Socialist First Secretary Olivier Faure announced on Saturday that he is running in the left-wing primaries. He did so at the party's summer university in Blois, where socialists gathered for the start of the political season. Libération ↗

French media use the designation left-wing primaries, though they do not include the entire left. This is an agreement between socialists, the Place publique movement and allied parties, while radical La France insoumise of Jean-Luc Mélenchon goes its own way.

The favorite is MEP Raphaël Glucksmann. Marianne writes that the primaries look "tailored" for him, and notes that he already has 10 to 15 percent voting preferences. Faure takes on the role of challenger against him and there are at least four other candidates in the running. Marianne ↗

Mediapart sees it more cautiously. While Glucksmann is considered the winner, he certainly does not have full support among socialist delegates in Blois, and according to the newspaper this revives hopes in Faure's camp. Mediapart ↗

That intra-party peace would not materialize was shown by socialist senator Laurence Rossignol. "I do not support Olivier Faure's strategy, I consider it a losing one," she said to BFM TV. BFM TV ↗

Le Figaro adds that primaries "parasitize" the start of the season for socialists and a candidate will not be determined until October. Le Figaro ↗

Center splits into three

On the other side of the spectrum, the exact opposite is happening. Gabriel Attal, who announced his candidacy already in spring, distanced himself from Édouard Philippe on Sunday. "We are not photocopies," he said and called his ideas "ideas from twenty years ago." He claims he is already at Philippe's level in polls. BFM TV ↗

Philippe, candidate of the Horizons party, responded conciliatorily. He suggested to Attal that he direct attacks at their common opponents, and promised that he himself would not attack anyone from the right or center during the campaign. Le Figaro ↗

The third in that same space is former Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin. "I want to be a candidate, I am fighting for it," he said on Sunday in the BFM Politique program. He rejects primaries as the wrong model. BFM TV ↗

He simultaneously accused Philippe of playing Marine Le Pen's game on immigration. "When I see Édouard Philippe, a member of the Republican party, saying on Mayotte that we need to reconsider birthright citizenship and asylum law... We are in France, in Mayotte," he complained. Le Figaro ↗

Why this is not just a French matter

It is precisely this imbalance that Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter noticed, and from a security angle. Polls ahead of next year's elections, as it formulates it, lead with two politicians skeptical of NATO, which raises the question of what will happen with cooperation around French nuclear weapons that Macron has launched in recent months with allies including Sweden. Dagens Nyheter ↗

Today's ceremony is a tangible example of this. Sweden is buying four frigates derived from the French FDI type from Naval Group, decided on the purchase in May and Defense Ministers Pål Jonson and Catherine Vautrinová are signing a framework agreement on cooperation in operations, defense capabilities and the arms industry. Swedish Government ↗

The ship on which the ceremony takes place has been anchored in Stockholm for several days and is of the same type that the Swedes ordered. Svenska Dagbladet ↗

In the French two-round system, however, this is not a detail. If the socialist camp can unite behind one name before the center does, it co-determines who even makes it to the second round.

Limitations of this perspective

One and a half years remain until the elections and polls at such a distance say little. We have not verified the exact figures either, Marianne keeps them behind a paywall, so we only have the direction it indicates: Le Pen leads, Glucksmann is rising and Mélenchon is falling back from the second round. The poll was conducted by Elabe for BFM TV and La Tribune Dimanche.

The framing must also be read through the editorial offices. The description of primaries "tailored" is Marianne's reading, which is openly critical of Faure's strategy, not a documented fact. Le Figaro is right-wing, Mediapart is left-wing investigative and Dagens Nyheter writes from the position of a country that is just signing French weapons contracts. Its designation of "two NATO skeptics" is also shorthand, because Le Pen and Mélenchon have different concerns about the alliance, not a shared position.

What hotinfo watches

Illustrative photo: courtyard of the Élysée Palace in Paris. Photo Leynadmar, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.