The Baltics and Poland: a hybrid campaign before May 9, 2026

The article that started it

Dva dni pred Putinovou prehliadkou: drony pri Rēzekne, ABW odhalila sabotážne bunky, Mentzen útočí na šéfa armády

14 hodín pred prehliadkou na Červenom námestí: drony pri lotyšskom Rēzekne, ABW raport o profesionalizovaných sabotážnych bunkách v Európe a…

7.5.2026

What we are still watching

• ⏳
  Latvia: who is asked to form a government after Rinkēvičs's meeting on May 15 — a caretaker cabinet until the October 3 elections is a real possibility
• ⏳
  Colonel Raivis Melnis — whether his nomination as defence chief survives the change of government or the new cabinet picks someone else
• ⏳
  The Riga–Kyiv drone deal — whether Zelensky's offer of Ukrainian experts and an agreement on layered air defence reaches signature
• ⏳
  Cell Broadcast in Rēzekne — the investigation into the hour-long delay of the warning system plus the political fallout for the new defence ministry
• ⏳
  KNAB and Armands Krauze — the outcome of the investigation in the timber case; suspending the agriculture minister could also unsettle the Union of Greens and Farmers before the elections
• ⏳
  Estonia and Lithuania — whether, after the Latvian resignation, similar political pressure falls on defence ministers in Tallinn and Vilnius, and whether more incidents follow
• ⏳
  The EU and NATO response to the ABW report — expulsions, sanctions initiatives, calling consultations under Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty
• ⏳
  The investigation into the November 2025 railway sabotage — whether the ABW identifies a specific sabotage cell linked to organised crime

What has happened

• ✅
  The Polish drone at Bartoszyce on May 9 — Osieka, Bartoszyce municipality, about 20 km from Kaliningrad, Cyrillic markings, a military observation type. We are tracking the official attribution (Tusk, Sikorski, Kierwiński), forensic analysis of the type and serial numbers, and any activation of NATO Article 4 HotInfo 867106 (9.5. ~17:00) zachytil incident na základe Polsat News, RMF24, Eurointegration. Dosah obmedzený, vylučuje UA pôvod. Vyšetrujú: polícia Bartoszyce + Olsztyn, Vojenská žandarméria, Krajská prokuratúra Olsztyn (VIII vojenské odd.). Centrálna vláda sa k 16:30 SELČ verejne nevyjadrila. → Dron s cyrilikou na poli pri Bartoszyciach: 20 km od ruskej hranice. V deň Putinovej prehliadky tretí hybridný incident týždňa na východnom krídle NATO 9.5.2026
• ✅
  Attribution of the drones in Latvia — whether the investigation confirms defence minister Sprūds's claim of Ukrainian origin, or finds something else Spruds rezignoval po havárii UA dronov v Lotyšsku — Die Zeit/NOS 10.-11.5.2026 → Nach Drohnen-Absturz: Lettlands Verteidigungsminister tritt zurück (Die Zeit) 11.5.2026
• ✅
  May 9–10 in the Baltics — whether Russia's shadow fleet, cyberattacks or more drones accompany Putin's parade Pobaltsko-poľský follow-up 873059 (11.5.2026) zachytil Sprūdsovu rezignáciu (10.5. večer), Bartoszyce drone (9.5.), kontrast s 9/2025 polským incidentom, Lotyšsko+Litva NATO air defence request. Indikátor splnený. → Sprūds rezignoval, plukovník z Ukrajiny má prevziať lotyšskú obranu. Varšava mlčí o Bartoszyciach, Konfederácia sa háda 11.5.2026
• ✅
  Nawrocki's offer to host American troops — whether it turns into an actual move from Germany to Poland, or Tusk's line prevails Follow-up 873059 — Trump v noci na 11.5. spomenul Nawrockého na TruthSocial, ponuka prijať 5000 vojakov z DE ostáva v hre. Reálny presun ešte nepotvrdený. → Sprūds rezignoval, plukovník z Ukrajiny má prevziať lotyšskú obranu. Varšava mlčí o Bartoszyciach, Konfederácia sa háda 11.5.2026
• ✅
  The Mentzen–Bosak split in Konfederacja — the electoral impact of the attack on General Kukuła and the party's internal rift Follow-up 873059 spomenul Bosakovu verejnú dištanciu od Mentzenovho výroku, Republika TV útok na Nawrockého (Onet 10.5.). Rozkol potvrdený, ale ďalší vývoj pred kampaňou treba sledovať samostatne. → Sprūds rezignoval, plukovník z Ukrajiny má prevziať lotyšskú obranu. Varšava mlčí o Bartoszyciach, Konfederácia sa háda 11.5.2026
• ✅
  Sprūds resigned on May 10 after the incident with Ukrainian drones from Russia — prime minister Siliņa lost her majority Briefing 1731: minister obrany Lotyšska rezignoval po dvoch ukrajinských dronoch pochádzajúcich z RU, ktoré zasiahli lotyšský sklad ropy → „Vertrauen verloren“ – Lettlands Verteidigungsminister tritt nach Drohnenvorfällen zurück (Welt) 10.5.2026
• ✅
  Latvia's governing coalition collapsed after Sprūds's resignation — the progressives withdrew their support (May 13) Der Standard #888996: Progressives left coalition po heftigen Streit über Sprūds Rücktritt — Riga pred predčasnými voľbami → Lettlands Regierungskoalition zerbrochen (Der Standard) 13.5.2026
• ✅
  Latvian prime minister Evika Siliņa resigned on May 14 amid the continuing crisis over Ukrainian drones coming from Russia (after Sprūds's resignation and the coalition's collapse) Tagesspiegel + Le Figaro: Silina tritt zurück / annonce sa démission. Tretia veľká zmena v lotyšskej | Synthesis HotInfo 896982 (15.5. ráno) uzatvára 4-dňový reťazec rezignácií → Lotyšská vláda padla po spore o ukrajinské drony: po Sprūdsovi končí aj premiérka Siliņa 15.5.2026